See attachment. Massive rally from the low point in March. Then tanked post Budget. Has rallied again since then. One of the guys I know told me that he met 4 stock brokers and all of them claimed that it would touch 30k before Diwali. Sounded insane to me. Brokers talking their book up and getting innocent retail investors in. I am quite bearish. But market can prove anyone wrong. What do members think?
Where is SENSEX headed?
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akshaymalik84
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I don't know...some random guys...I didn't meet them myself. This other guy who claimed to have met them told me. There is a scope of some masala-addition from this guy...
, but I don't see any reason for him to do it.brainspeak
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markets in India dont follow any particular trend...only when an event has occured nd the sensex has moved up or down tht the explanations are put forward by the so called experts....no one has been able to predict where the sensex would land the next day...it all depends upon the manipulators, people with big bucks invested...
one particular trend tht i have observed is tht -- the sensex shoots up on friday nd then flatens on monday....nd its happening on a fairly regularly basis..
then other curious case is....many a times there are negative sentiments(no projects, bad press etc etc) abt a company even then the stock price rises....so the situation in Indian markets is quite confusing....
abt the 30k scenario....its not impossible but i think it will take some more diwalis to reach this figure...
Yes, I agree that the 30k scenario is all bull crap. And yes, there is a lot of insider trading in India. However, the general trend of the market is very similar to other global markets. Would post on that later with some evidence.
brainspeak
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yeah Indian markets are definitely connected with the world markets....btw wht is ur personal opinion abt the sensex?? u said u r bearish but any possibility of a bull run too in the near future??
nishantrathi82
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Market in India is most difficult one to predict they can jump up with any bad news and down with good news. Cann't say anythink but surely it will improve and at Diwali 30000 doesn't look realistic but yaa 18000-20000 it can go.
Kuldeep, here is an attachment on correlation of Indian markets with other world markets. The graph has 4 other indices, dow jones, dax, ftse and Hong Kong. As you can see, the direction of the movement in Indian market is same as in other markets. But the extent of movement is much higher. This only compares from Jan 2009. If you look at the previous data, the same trend is there. When world markets were tanking, Indian market was tanking much more.
My opinion always gets butchered...
. Last time, in April, when Sensex was at 10k or so, I said that the market shouldn't rally. It should either stagnate or maybe go even lower. But it rallied big time. I still don't see any reason for it to have rallied. The world economy is still in deep sh*t. The market just lapped on to whatever little good news it saw and ignored all the bad news. I think it should tank and probably go below 10k before the end of this year. But yes if it touches those lows again, it is a good buy. I won't buy at current levels. It can still go 20k or beyond, if all the people continue feeling good and buying. But personally, I see a significant downside risk.brainspeak
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Kuldeep, here is an attachment on correlation of Indian markets with other world markets. The graph has 4 other indices, dow jones, dax, ftse and Hong Kong. As you can see, the direction of the movement in Indian market is same as in other markets. But the extent of movement is much higher. This only compares from Jan 2009. If you look at the previous data, the same trend is there. When world markets were tanking, Indian market was tanking much more.
My opinion always gets butchered...
Thanks Kapil for the attachment.
I had read abt the correlation earlier but had not seen the comparative analysis. But again the question remains -- why the rally?? I agree tht markets react to any kind of news nd accordingly move up nd down..but current bull run is not exactly justified...maybe its building up of another bubble!!!
on personal level as for the investing part-- like u mentioned its worthwhile only if the sensex is below 10k...infact when it was around the 8k-8.5k mark i had shortlisted some shares nd had planned to put my money into them...but i got busy elsewhere nd now the shares have performed really well..
maybe the moderators can start a separate section/subsection where people can share tips abt the stock market/investments so tht members can channelize their energy in making some money instead of cursing,leg pulling,fighting over homos etc etc...>>just a thought!!
Thanks Kapil for the attachment.
I had read abt the correlation earlier but had not seen the comparative analysis. But again the question remains -- why the rally?? I agree tht markets react to any kind of news nd accordingly move up nd down..but current bull run is not exactly justified...maybe its building up of another bubble!!!
on personal level as for the investing part-- like u mentioned its worthwhile only if the sensex is below 10k...infact when it was around the 8k-8.5k mark i had shortlisted some shares nd had planned to put my money into them...but i got busy elsewhere nd now the shares have performed really well..
maybe the moderators can start a separate section/subsection where people can share tips abt the stock market/investments so tht members can channelize their energy in making some money instead of cursing,leg pulling,fighting over homos etc etc...>>just a thought!!
Hahaha...
, on the last bit...There was a thread started on investing by Anil Sangwan
http://www.jatland.com/forums/showthread.php?t=26440&highlight=invest
You can revive it...
On the reasons for rally, I can share with you my own rationale. Basically the authorities all over the world took massive actions in terms of fiscal and monetary stimulus. Then Obama got elected. That was a sort of trigger for "hope". Then there was lots of positive spin on how the various stimuli would bail out the economy. Whatever little good news came out- minor increases in growth rate, fall in number of job cuts, etc. was seen as an end of the recession. And whatever bad news was there- high numbers of unemployed, high level of debt, continuing defaults was ignored. Only time would tell if the reversal from March 2009 was the turning point and if the recession has ended. I think not.
brainspeak
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