चीन की अर्थव्*यवस्*था खतरे में पड़ती दिख रही है। जाने माने अर्थशास्*त्री पॉल क्रुगमैन ने यह आशंका जताई है। अमेरिकी अखबार ‘न्*यूयॉर्क टाइम्*स’ के लिए लिखे अपने खास लेख में क्रुगमैन ने चीन की मौजूदा आर्थिक हालत का जिक्र किया है।
उनका कहना है कि रियल एस्*टेट की कीमतों में इजाफा होने के बाद निर्माण क्षेत्र में आई बूम से हाल में चीन की अर्थव्*यवस्*था में काफी बढ़ोतरी देखी गई थी। साख में भी वृद्धि दर में तेजी दर्ज की गई। हालांकि यह परंपरागत बैंकिंग के चलते नहीं बल्कि अनियंत्रित ‘शैडो बैंकिंग’ के चलते हुआ जिस पर न तो सरकार की नजर है और न ही बैंक गारंटियों का इन्*हें समर्थन मिला है। उन्होंने लिखा है कि रियल एस्टेट क्षेत्र में तो हालात बिगड़ते जा रहे हैं। चीन सरकार बाजार में अरबों रुपए डाल रही है। सरकार ने वहां अपने पैसे से कई बड़ी टाउनशिप डेवलप की है। ये सभी निर्माण समय पर पूरे हुए लेकिन इनके खरीदार बाजार में नहीं हैं। सच तो यह है कि वहां कोई रहता भी नहीं है। अब हालात ये हैं कि चीन की तेज विकास दर का बुलबुला फूटने लगा है।
कौन हैं पॉल क्रुगमैन अर्थशास्त्री पॉल क्रुगमैन को अमेरिका के पूर्व राष्ट्रपति जॉर्ज बुश की आर्थिक और विदेश नीतियों की जोरदार मुखालफत करने वाले शख्*स के तौर पर जाना जाता है। हालांकि क्रुगमैन ने ओबामा प्रशासन की भी कुछ आर्थिक नीतियों की आलोचना की है। क्रुगमैन को 2008 के अर्थशास्त्र के नोबेल पुरस्कार से नवाजा गया है। उन्*हें यह पुरस्कार ‘एनालिसिस ऑफ ट्रेड पैटर्न्*स एंड लोकेशन ऑफ इकोनॉमिक एक्टिविटी’ नाम की उनकी चर्चित थ्योरी के लिए दिया गया था। 1953 में जन्मे क्रुगमैन न्यू जर्सी की प्रिंस्टन यूनिवर्सिटी में प्रोफेसर और ‘न्यूयॉर्क टाइम्स’ के नियमित स्तंभकार हैं। क्रुगमैन ने बुश की इराक नीति से लेकर अमेरिकी वित्तीय व्यवस्था से संबंधित अधिकांश नीतियों की अपने लेखों और स्तंभों के जरिए जोरदार तरीके से आलोचना की है। क्रुगमैन ही वह शख्*स हैं जिन्*होंने अमेरिका में आई आर्थिक मंदी की सबसे पहले भविष्*यवाणी की थी।
क्यों बिगड़ी अर्थव्यवस्था अर्थव्*यवस्*था से जुड़े आंकड़े विज्ञान की कल्*पना का उबाऊ रूप लगते हैं। लेकिन चीन के आंकड़े कल्*पना की पराकाष्*ठा को पार कर गए हैं। पिछले एक दशक के दौरान चीन की अर्थव्*यवस्*था के बारे में सबसे अहम बात यह दिखती है कि किस तरीके से यहां घरेलू खर्च बढ़ा है। ऐसे वक्*त में चीन में उपभोक्*ता का खर्च जीडीपी का महज 35 फीसदी है जो अमेरिका का आधा है। क्रुगमैन कहते हैं, ‘ऐसे में सवाल उठता है कि आखिर चीन के उत्*पादों और सेवाओं का उपभोग कौन कर रहा है। अर्थव्*यवस्*था में उपभोक्*ता की हिस्*सेदारी कम हुई है और उत्*पादन जारी रखने के लिए ट्रेड सरप्*लस पर निर्भरता बढ़ी है। लेकिन सबसे बड़ी चिंता निवेश में होने वाले खर्च को लेकर है जो जीडीपी का करीब-करीब आधा हो गया है।
MILY BOURKE: Australia's economy has become increasingly reliant on China to sustain the resources boom that's boosting national income.
One of the biggest drivers of Chinese demand for Australia's iron ore and coal is the steel required for new apartments being built to the country's rapidly urbanising population.
But there are concerns that after a couple of years of surging housing prices, China's property market is about to crash and that could have flow on effects for Australia's resources exports and economic growth.
Here's business reporter Michael Janda.
MICHAEL JANDA: When the global financial crisis struck, the Chinese authorities took action to make loans cheaper and boost the domestic economy.
But cheap money and an urbanising population has resulted in a rapid rise in properties prices.
JUNWEI SUN: We did see some extraordinary surge of property prices and signs of overheating with Chinese property market over the past one or two years time.
MICHAEL JANDA: HSBC's Beijing-based China economist Junwei Sun. But she says any bubbles confined to a few major cities.
JUNWEI SUN: It is harder to see a nationwide property bubble but for some large cities and for some specific projects, the prices are indeed excessively high.
MICHAEL JANDA: ANZ's Hong Kong-based head of China economics Li-Gang Liu says the Chinese property market is slowing rapidly.
LI-GANG LIU: Indeed it is quite significant concern. At this moment Chinese housing transaction volume fell by 30 per cent, prices across 70 Chinese cities are declining.
MICHAEL JANDA: Some analysts are drawing comparisons with the US subprime mortgage crisis which triggered the global financial crisis in the first place.
But these two China-based economists say there are several key differences.
For one, Junwei Sun says it is government policy that intentionally triggered the slowdown.
JUNWEI SUN: The property prices are too high which is beyond affordability of the ordinary people. The government wants stability. They don't want any risk of social unrest so it want to bring the prices to a more reasonable level.
MICHAEL JANDA: Li-Gang Liu says the government can quickly change tack if the property slowdown is faster than it wants.
LI-GANG LIU: If they can ease the current very restrictive administrative policies, this can of downturn can be reversed.
MICHAEL JANDA: He says the biggest difference is the type of people that can get housing loans in China.
Far from the US model of lending to people with no deposit and no proof of income, Chinese law makes a large down payment compulsory.
LI-GANG LIU: The US housing bubble was mainly driven by subprime lending and in the case of China, we do not think that there's any subprime lending and ordinary folks who want to borrow from the banking system for a mortgage, will be asked to put down a down payment of at least 30 per cent.
MICHAEL JANDA: That means housing prices have to fall more than 30 per cent before the personal problem of declining home values becomes a problem for the banking system.
Li-Gang Liu says a major house price fall could seriously dent Chinese growth.
LI-GANG LIU: If we see a collapse in the property market, growth rate around 7 to 8 per cent will be likely but we do not think that kind of scenario will be possible in 2012.
MICHAEL JANDA: A slowdown in China would cut demand and prices for Australian commodities with a negative impact on export earnings.
But on the figures from these China's economists, it seems Australians have much more to fear from a possible collapse in our own property market than from a fall in Chinese home prices.
EMILY BOURKE: Michael Janda reporting and you can listen to extended versions of both of those interviews on The World Today's website later this afternoon.
The home prices are overvalued by about 25% or more in Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, New Zealand, Britain, the Netherlands, Spain and Sweden. These countries are first in line not China!!
House of horrors, part 2
MANY of the world’s financial and economic woes since 2008 began with the bursting of the biggest bubble in history. Never before had house prices risen so fast, for so long, in so many countries. Yet the bust has been much less widespread than the boom. Home prices tumbled by 34% in America from 2006 to their low point earlier this year; in Ireland they plunged by an even more painful 45% from their peak in 2007; and prices have fallen by around 15% in Spain and Denmark. But in most other countries they have dipped by less than 10%, as in Britain and Italy. In some countries, such as Australia, Canada and Sweden, prices wobbled but then surged to new highs. As a result, many property markets are still looking uncomfortably overvalued.
The latest update of The Economist’s global house-price indicators shows that prices are now falling in eight of the 16 countries in the table, compared with five in late 2010. (For house prices from more countries see our website). To assess the risks of a further slump, we track two measures of valuation. The first is the price-to-income ratio, a gauge of affordability. The second is the price-to-rent ratio, which is a bit like the price-to-earnings ratio used to value companies. Just as the value of a share should reflect future profits that a company is expected to earn, house prices should reflect the expected benefits from home ownership: namely the rents earned by property investors (or those saved by owner-occupiers). If both of these measures are well above their long-term average, which we have calculated since 1975 for most countries, this could signal that property is overvalued.
And low rates need to be balanced against the fact that tighter credit conditions make it harder for homebuyers to get mortgages. The average deposit needed by a British first-time buyer is now equivalent to 90% of average annual earnings, according to Capital Economics, a consultancy. It was less than 20% in the late 1990s. Another popular argument used to justify sky-high prices in countries such as Australia and Canada is that a rising population pushes up demand. But this should raise both prices and rents, leaving their ratios unchanged. Prices do not necessarily need to drop sharply to return to fair value. Adjustment could come through higher rents and wages. With low inflation, however, it could take a decade or more before price ratios return to their long-run average in some countries.
Jingle mail
American prices fell sharply, even though homes were less overvalued than they were in many other countries, because high-risk mortgages and a surge in unemployment caused distressed sales. In most other countries, lenders avoided the worst excesses of subprime lending, and unemployment rose by less, so there were fewer forced sales dragging prices down. America is also unusual in having non-recourse mortgages that let borrowers walk away with no liability.
An optimist could therefore argue that our gauges overstate the extent to which house prices are overvalued, and that if markets are only a bit too expensive they can adjust gradually without a sharp fall. It is important to remember, however, that lower interest rates and rising populations were used to justify higher prices in America and Ireland before their bubbles burst so spectacularly.
Another concern is that Australia, Britain, Canada, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Spain and Sweden all have even higher household-debt burdens in relation to income than America did at the peak of its bubble. Overvalued prices and large debts leave households vulnerable to a rise in unemployment or higher mortgage rates. A credit crunch or recession could cause house prices to tumble in many more countries.
Many others have been saying this for quite a while now, infact betting against China in the markets. Krugman's backing just makes their case a bit stronger. Hedge fund investor Chanos is the most famous of them. http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2010/11/17/chanos-vs-china/
