Hisar Byelection on 13-Oct-2011
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anilsangwan
Active member
Jamaanat aale peesey bhi gaye JP ke....................... !!!!!! :tamatar
:tamatar:tamatar
:tamatar:tamatar:tamatar:tamatar<<< JP er Congresssiyaa khatir.........................
:tamatar:tamatar
:tamatar:tamatar:tamatar:tamatar<<< JP er Congresssiyaa khatir.........................
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koi retd comm rank ka afsar bataya yo ....
S
sumitdahiya123
Guest
iska symbol road roller tha joki kuldeep ke tractor se milta julta tha ye kuldeep li gobi khod gaya logo ne tractor soch kar road roller ka button press kiya
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dvnehra
Guest
2000 plus to each kuldeep(04 candidates) i.e. 9000 plus 27000 of op kalyan of road roller wala(like the symbol of tractor of HJC) ARE ALSO KULDEEP BISHNOI'S VOTES. SO, IT IS ACTUALLY A LEAD OF MORE THAN 42000 VOTES OVER AJAY CHAUTALA.
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dvnehra
Guest
The votes polled by op kalyan are actually kuldeep bishnoi's because his symbol of road roller is similar to tractor of kuldeep bishnoi. God has actually just saved bishnoi .
rohittewatia
New member
40 men sey asli mukabla to 3 candidate ka thaa...baaki saare 37 ummeedvaar to bas vote kharabh kar rahe they...Look at nr 32 n 33....They both seem Brothers father name is same (Probably). 3000 vote kharabh karri...Donuan ney milke 
But Dats Democracy. Inh sabhi candidates ko medal dilwao ki MP key election men khade hue haiin.
32. Ved Pal S/o Inder Singh - 2038
33. Ved Pal S/o Bije Singh - 966
But Dats Democracy. Inh sabhi candidates ko medal dilwao ki MP key election men khade hue haiin. 32. Ved Pal S/o Inder Singh - 2038
33. Ved Pal S/o Bije Singh - 966
A
amankadian
Guest
40 men sey asli mukabla to 3 candidate ka thaa...baaki saare 37 ummeedvaar to bas vote kharabh kar rahe they...Look at nr 32 n 33....They both seem Brothers father name is same (Probably). 3000 vote kharabh karri...Donuan ney milke
32. Ved Pal S/o Inder Singh - 2038
33. Ved Pal S/o Bije Singh - 966
Haha chorre mukabla to 2 ke bicch tha. JP to bakaar main Jamant kapt karwaga aapni ar Gela Hooda ke chand se tut ge
Yes, attached to the post number 280 by Anil.
Deependra, that is this election's. I wanted to see the numbers for last election (that Bhajanlal won). I think they too may be on this thread, but it is too long to check..
anilsangwan
Active member
Na rohit bhai..........in mein se number 32 wala hai ved pal singh tanwar ....jiske farm house pe mirachpur aale dhedh pade sein..........us ne mirchpur aale case ko hawa dee hai bahut...........yoh vedpal ek number ka chor s......iske vote in backward classs ke sein......... Allll mhala bedpal....
40 men sey asli mukabla to 3 candidate ka thaa...baaki saare 37 ummeedvaar to bas vote kharabh kar rahe they...Look at nr 32 n 33....They both seem Brothers father name is same (Probably). 3000 vote kharabh karri...Donuan ney milke
32. Ved Pal S/o Inder Singh - 2038
33. Ved Pal S/o Bije Singh - 966
anilsangwan
Active member
you can not say that those 27000 are all kuldeep's votes....... Kuchhh op chautala ke naam ki bhi paawengi.....
anilsangwan
Active member
Agar Bjp alag se ladti yeh election capt abhmanyu ko candidate banakar........ to kuldeep gaya thaa kaam se........... ebbb iski ijjatt si bachi s bassss....
anilsangwan
Active member
bhai last time BJ P was with Inld ..... So you can not compare directly....... Ya bjp bhi to khasam badalti reh s teesre din......
A
amankadian
Guest
INLD is time sabse majboot davdaar party hai Haryana ki
Congress ki Her jagha har hui kal ke election main
Jai Hind ...............................................
Congress ki Her jagha har hui kal ke election main
Jai Hind ...............................................
haan bhai, duniya to bawli booch sai..unke deede foot re sain...27000 vote nyu e de diye..ibb nyu na keh diye ke ye vote Congress ke the..
Rise in INLD vote share a worry for Congress
NEW DELHI: In vote share terms, Kuldeep Bishnoi's Haryana Janhit Congress (HJC) saw an increase of 8.8 percentage points in its share, an increase of 8.9 percentage points in the INLD's share and a decline of almost the same magnitude, or 8.4 percentage points, in the Congress's share of the electoral cake.
The increase in the INLD's vote share would be particularly worrying for the Congress, which must be wondering whether this signals the shift of Jat votes away from it that several political pundits have been speculating about.
In Bihar, chief minister Nitish Kumar has reason to be particularly pleased. Not only has his party retained the Daraundha assembly seat, it has actually increased its vote share from 44.3% in 2009 to 51% in these polls. The RJD too has benefited from a marginalization of fringe players to raise its share from 16.2% last time to 31.2% now, but still well short of posing a challenge. The Congress meanwhile fell from an already low 7.6% to an embarrassing 4.2%.
The Banswada assembly byelection in Andhra Pradesh confirmed the massive groundswell in favour of Telengana in this part of the state with the TRS, which did not contest in 2009, mopping up two-thirds (67.7%) of all the votes polled. The Congress, which had come second to the TDP last time, saw its share drop from 34.1% to 27.1% despite the absence of the TDP from the fray.
Khadakwasla was a bit more of a mixed bag for the UPA. While the NCP saw its vote share rising dramatically from 32.1% in 2009 to 47.2% this time round, it still proved not enough to win. The BJP candidate got just over 50% of the votes leading to speculation that the MNS, which held the seat in 2009 but was not a contestant this time, had tacitly supported the BJP. If so, that could be a worry for the UPA in the medium term.
NEW DELHI: In vote share terms, Kuldeep Bishnoi's Haryana Janhit Congress (HJC) saw an increase of 8.8 percentage points in its share, an increase of 8.9 percentage points in the INLD's share and a decline of almost the same magnitude, or 8.4 percentage points, in the Congress's share of the electoral cake.
The increase in the INLD's vote share would be particularly worrying for the Congress, which must be wondering whether this signals the shift of Jat votes away from it that several political pundits have been speculating about.
In Bihar, chief minister Nitish Kumar has reason to be particularly pleased. Not only has his party retained the Daraundha assembly seat, it has actually increased its vote share from 44.3% in 2009 to 51% in these polls. The RJD too has benefited from a marginalization of fringe players to raise its share from 16.2% last time to 31.2% now, but still well short of posing a challenge. The Congress meanwhile fell from an already low 7.6% to an embarrassing 4.2%.
The Banswada assembly byelection in Andhra Pradesh confirmed the massive groundswell in favour of Telengana in this part of the state with the TRS, which did not contest in 2009, mopping up two-thirds (67.7%) of all the votes polled. The Congress, which had come second to the TDP last time, saw its share drop from 34.1% to 27.1% despite the absence of the TDP from the fray.
Khadakwasla was a bit more of a mixed bag for the UPA. While the NCP saw its vote share rising dramatically from 32.1% in 2009 to 47.2% this time round, it still proved not enough to win. The BJP candidate got just over 50% of the votes leading to speculation that the MNS, which held the seat in 2009 but was not a contestant this time, had tacitly supported the BJP. If so, that could be a worry for the UPA in the medium term.
Last 3 results of main parties
[TABLE="width: 263"]
[TR]
[TD]Congress[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jai Prakash[/TD]
[TD]2004[/TD]
[TD]52.89%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jai Prakash[/TD]
[TD]2009[/TD]
[TD]24.69%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jai Prakash[/TD]
[TD]2011[/TD]
[TD]16.34%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]INLD[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Surender Singh[/TD]
[TD]2004[/TD]
[TD]29.15%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sampat Singh[/TD]
[TD]2009[/TD]
[TD]29.15%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ajay Chautala[/TD]
[TD]2011[/TD]
[TD]38.15%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]HJC[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]N/A[/TD]
[TD]2004[/TD]
[TD]N/A[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bhajan Lal[/TD]
[TD]2009[/TD]
[TD]29.99%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kuldeep Bishnoi[/TD]
[TD]2011[/TD]
[TD]38.84%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]BJP[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Swami Raghavanand[/TD]
[TD]2004[/TD]
[TD]8.41%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]With INLD[/TD]
[TD]2009[/TD]
[TD]N/A[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]With HJC[/TD]
[TD]2011[/TD]
[TD]N/A[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]BSP[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sant Ram Prakash[/TD]
[TD]2004[/TD]
[TD]3.26%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ram Dayal Goyal[/TD]
[TD]2009[/TD]
[TD]10.90%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Didn't contest[/TD]
[TD]2011[/TD]
[TD]N/A[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
***************************************************************
- Agree with Anil that like to like comparison not possible. BJP changed partners and BSP didn't contest this time. Still, these numbers are interesting.
- Assuming BJP can transfer all its votes, HJC didn't gain any vote share. Its vote share between 2009 and 2011 went up by 8% that BJP had got in 2004 when it contested alone. The way Congress vote share halved between 2004 and 2009 shows that Bhajan Lal has a strong base here. But both Bhajan Lal & Kuldeep were very lucky in winning by 5k or so votes when the "Others" category got much more than that. If a bulk of "Others" are candidates attracting Jat votes, the strongest Jat candidate can gain if they could convince these "Others" to not contest.
- Congress is the biggest loser. Bhajan Lal took more than half of vote share in 2009. And this time it lost further 8%. This is even worse considering that BSP didn't contest and Congress may have hoped that BSP's 11% voters from last election would consider it a better choice than other 2 main candidates.
- INLD makes a significant 8% gain in 2011 from what its vote share was in 2004 and 2009 (29.15% in both cases). This is even more impressive if you assume that BJP was giving it 8% in 2009- this would make the jump between 2009 and 2011 as a whopping 16%. But not sure if it can gain much more from here in a 3-way contest where third main candiate is also a Jat (and as mentioned earlier, lots of "Other" Jat candidates). It has lost both 2009 and 2011 by very narrow margins and vote shares of both HJC and INLD have been identical.
- Anyone knows why BSP didn't contest? Was it supporting someone overtly or covertly? Some independents may have taken some of the votes, but it is not clear where the rest went. If they went to Congress, then Congress situation is even worse than it looks. If they didn't go to Congress, and gain in HJC came mostly from BJP's share- then it means many of those votes went to INLD which doesn't make sense.
**********************************************************************
Yeh mera niji vishleshan hai jo maine apni jigyasa ke liye kiya tha. Kisi bhai ko pasand na aaye, to sar mat hoiyyo...nothing official about it...
[TABLE="width: 263"]
[TR]
[TD]Congress[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jai Prakash[/TD]
[TD]2004[/TD]
[TD]52.89%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jai Prakash[/TD]
[TD]2009[/TD]
[TD]24.69%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Jai Prakash[/TD]
[TD]2011[/TD]
[TD]16.34%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]INLD[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Surender Singh[/TD]
[TD]2004[/TD]
[TD]29.15%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sampat Singh[/TD]
[TD]2009[/TD]
[TD]29.15%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ajay Chautala[/TD]
[TD]2011[/TD]
[TD]38.15%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]HJC[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]N/A[/TD]
[TD]2004[/TD]
[TD]N/A[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Bhajan Lal[/TD]
[TD]2009[/TD]
[TD]29.99%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Kuldeep Bishnoi[/TD]
[TD]2011[/TD]
[TD]38.84%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]BJP[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Swami Raghavanand[/TD]
[TD]2004[/TD]
[TD]8.41%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]With INLD[/TD]
[TD]2009[/TD]
[TD]N/A[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]With HJC[/TD]
[TD]2011[/TD]
[TD]N/A[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]BSP[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Sant Ram Prakash[/TD]
[TD]2004[/TD]
[TD]3.26%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ram Dayal Goyal[/TD]
[TD]2009[/TD]
[TD]10.90%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Didn't contest[/TD]
[TD]2011[/TD]
[TD]N/A[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
***************************************************************
- Agree with Anil that like to like comparison not possible. BJP changed partners and BSP didn't contest this time. Still, these numbers are interesting.
- Assuming BJP can transfer all its votes, HJC didn't gain any vote share. Its vote share between 2009 and 2011 went up by 8% that BJP had got in 2004 when it contested alone. The way Congress vote share halved between 2004 and 2009 shows that Bhajan Lal has a strong base here. But both Bhajan Lal & Kuldeep were very lucky in winning by 5k or so votes when the "Others" category got much more than that. If a bulk of "Others" are candidates attracting Jat votes, the strongest Jat candidate can gain if they could convince these "Others" to not contest.
- Congress is the biggest loser. Bhajan Lal took more than half of vote share in 2009. And this time it lost further 8%. This is even worse considering that BSP didn't contest and Congress may have hoped that BSP's 11% voters from last election would consider it a better choice than other 2 main candidates.
- INLD makes a significant 8% gain in 2011 from what its vote share was in 2004 and 2009 (29.15% in both cases). This is even more impressive if you assume that BJP was giving it 8% in 2009- this would make the jump between 2009 and 2011 as a whopping 16%. But not sure if it can gain much more from here in a 3-way contest where third main candiate is also a Jat (and as mentioned earlier, lots of "Other" Jat candidates). It has lost both 2009 and 2011 by very narrow margins and vote shares of both HJC and INLD have been identical.
- Anyone knows why BSP didn't contest? Was it supporting someone overtly or covertly? Some independents may have taken some of the votes, but it is not clear where the rest went. If they went to Congress, then Congress situation is even worse than it looks. If they didn't go to Congress, and gain in HJC came mostly from BJP's share- then it means many of those votes went to INLD which doesn't make sense.
**********************************************************************
Yeh mera niji vishleshan hai jo maine apni jigyasa ke liye kiya tha. Kisi bhai ko pasand na aaye, to sar mat hoiyyo...nothing official about it...
anilsangwan
Active member
Kapil bhai,
First of all, thanks a ton for detailed analysis - very honestly done.
BSP didnt contest this time, few reasons in my opinion:
1. IN 2009, backward classes had impression that Mayavati is in candidates for PM post. All mhaali behanji banegi pradhaan mantri...... they can not look beyond Maya or Kanshiram and finally Ambedkar.... This time, no such projection and hence no candidate. Agar BSP ka candidate hota bhi to last time ke mukaable 50% vote hi aati.
2. This time, Kuldeep would have first asked Mayawati for alliance (which she denied as it didnt work last time and Man Singh Manhera was beaten in Hisar) - but when alliance didnt happen, to keep the doors open for negotiation before 2014 elections - she indirectly helped Kuldeep ( waise bhi BSP candidate jeet to sake nahi thaa Hisar tein.....)... But Kuldeep proved smarter, uss ne BJP ka latta odh liya er Maya tein bhi understanding raakhi....
Remember, HJC-BSP alliance was broken last time in 2009 when Kuldeep wanted to bring these three together (HJC-BSP-BJP) in 2009 elections....... Agar aisa ho jaata ..... to Hooda aaj CM naa hota.......!! And believe me, to get close to CM-ship - he can try this once again before 2014......
Uprokt sabhi cases mein, Congress ka nuksaan hai !!! Hooda saab ko bye bye kehne ka waqt najdeek aa raha hai.........
Dekhann aali baat s ki BJP ebbb HJC ke saath rehwegi yaa fer one night stand thaa yoh...!!!
First of all, thanks a ton for detailed analysis - very honestly done.
BSP didnt contest this time, few reasons in my opinion:
1. IN 2009, backward classes had impression that Mayavati is in candidates for PM post. All mhaali behanji banegi pradhaan mantri...... they can not look beyond Maya or Kanshiram and finally Ambedkar.... This time, no such projection and hence no candidate. Agar BSP ka candidate hota bhi to last time ke mukaable 50% vote hi aati.
2. This time, Kuldeep would have first asked Mayawati for alliance (which she denied as it didnt work last time and Man Singh Manhera was beaten in Hisar) - but when alliance didnt happen, to keep the doors open for negotiation before 2014 elections - she indirectly helped Kuldeep ( waise bhi BSP candidate jeet to sake nahi thaa Hisar tein.....)... But Kuldeep proved smarter, uss ne BJP ka latta odh liya er Maya tein bhi understanding raakhi....
Remember, HJC-BSP alliance was broken last time in 2009 when Kuldeep wanted to bring these three together (HJC-BSP-BJP) in 2009 elections....... Agar aisa ho jaata ..... to Hooda aaj CM naa hota.......!! And believe me, to get close to CM-ship - he can try this once again before 2014......
Uprokt sabhi cases mein, Congress ka nuksaan hai !!! Hooda saab ko bye bye kehne ka waqt najdeek aa raha hai.........
Dekhann aali baat s ki BJP ebbb HJC ke saath rehwegi yaa fer one night stand thaa yoh...!!!
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