India headed for food shortages?

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vijay123

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[FONT=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif]India headed for food shortages?

NEW DELHI: Surging foodgrain prices and worsening global supplies are now bringing the domestic food crisis to the boil. The crisis has been building up for some time - Indian farmers seem to have hit a dead end as their foodgrain yields are no longer going up. Grain output has been stagnating for over a decade and now there's a growing gap between supply and demand.

"Yes, we have a problem,'' admits Abhijit Sen, economist and Planning Commission member, "and it can be starkly put in the following way: roughly around 2004-05, our per capita foodgrain production was back to the 1970s level."

The figures tell a stark story. In 1979, at the height of the Green Revolution euphoria, per capita availability of cereals and pulses had gone up to 476.5 grams per day. The corresponding figure in 2006 was 444.5 grams per day, according to provisional government statistics.

In 2005, it was still lower at 422 grams. In the case of pulses, per capita net availability today is almost half of what it was five decades ago - 32.5 grams per day in 2006 compared with 60.7 grams per day in 1951.

The reason for this fall in the availability of food is that our farm output is just not growing. Since the mid-1990s, the output has hovered around 415 million tonne. "In the eight years between 1996 and 2004, when agriculture was growing at a low 2%, there was, in fact, zero growth in foodgrains," says Sen.

See the complete newsitem here:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India_headed_for_food_shortages/articleshow/2912360.cms
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Is there a connection with rising prices?

Is this really true?

I have so many questions after going through this article. Why this price rise is cyclic if non growth in farm output is the cause. This thing also happened in the last year of NDA rule and proved a disaster to them. Same is happening now with congress :D.

What are the real reasons?

Why price rise has anything to do with slowdown in USA?

I can understand Gold / Silver going up. But sugar, pulses, poor vegetables? What is the connection.

Does it has something to do with COMMODITIES trading on stock exchanges. I really don't understand banks buying and selling Cotton, Sugar, Wheat, Corn, virtually everything in New York Mercantile Exchange and yes on NCDEX, MCX in India too.
 
may be its about the purchasing power

i am not an economist...but i had read an interesting article...

agriculture production figures are just one side of the story...

when the economy shows signs of good growth, which it is doing for all couple of years...the consumption of wheat cereals, pulses and milk goes up....

does it mean that we start consuming more of them ??

the answer is yes...

but the consumption is indirect or in other words we are consuming these things at times other than our regular meals....that means the consumptions of breads, biscuits, icecreams and other bakery and snack foods item increase...
therefore allthoough the monthly cereal purchasing of the household remains the same people start consuming more of these items indirectly which ultimately leads to shortage....

i donno how many would agree with this, but it looks practical to me...
 
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Looks like we were moving towards an obese nation and nature has stepped in to control that.

The question is why the inflation has increased in such a short span of time. Till Feb end everything seemed to be okay, govt was planning for early elections and suddenly in a month things have taken a u-turn.

vicky said:
i am not an economist...but i had read an interesting article...

agriculture production figures are just one side of the story...

when the economy shows signs of good growth, which it is doing for all couple of years...the consumption of wheat cereals, pulses and milk goes up....

does it mean that we start consuming more of them ??

the answer is yes...
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Gold PRice and other commodities rising are due to move to safe heavens by the investors in present market turmoils.

But inflation in food items in India is due to not great improvement in productivity !

Here is an extract from an article/report :

=====================

Poor structural factors within India's agricultural sector imply that the country will increasingly rely on imports to
meet rising domestic demand for food. Grain production has plateaued in the past four to five years largely as a
result of diminishing productivity in agriculture. Grain output has risen by 22% since 1990, but unable to match a
population that has increased by 33%. India has also experienced an increase in agricultural subsidies, which
may distort incentives and foster inefficiencies. Given food import restrictions, food shortages may develop
especially if and when a negative supply shock such as deficient rainfall occurs. The government's food stocks
have also declined as a share of total production and without buffer inventories, speculative forces could take​
hold and drive food prices considerably higher.

===========================================


What the govt is doing to prevent inflation ?

Have a look at this article :

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...ilings_on_commodities/articleshow/2924206.cms



Seems like difficult times lie ahead ! :(

 
We creating one crisis after the other

Very thought provoking thread indeed

Food shortage was a crisis waiting to happen, though not a disaster yet. We live in a materialistic world today with everything chic and happening appealing to us, be they those malls, multiplexes, highrise buildings and other concrete and glass jungles.

Have we ever taken just two minutes of our precious time to ponder upon why the food shortage has beaten hollow the government's claim of 'India Shining' or whatever (something similar projected by the current congress dispensation). The hardships of the common man could not have been more at any point in time in modern times with the contrast between the Rich (have's) and Poor (have not's) being so glaring and vulgar.

The reason behind this food shortage is not just inflation, static productivity, commodity trading, it is also this EATING AWAY OF RICH FERTILE AGRICULTURAL LAND across India. The bread basket of India - Punjab and Haryana will soon have no land under agriculture if things continue like this without any government intervention (in fact the government is plundering the land, hands in glove with the builder lobby).

The basic needs of man - Food, Shelter and clothing (though not a crisis yet) have become tradable commodities. One very interesting news the other day - POTABLE/DRINKABLE WATER would also be traded all across the world soon - including India and China. They are already trading in air - with the governments across the world buying and selling carbon credits (buying and selling their sins of polluting the air). People living in North India and other parts of the world are very much aware of the climate change and its adverse impact. With the decline in the green cover, in summer months for days on end the temperatures do not come down - be it day or night. Its like sitting in an oven. We get temporary respite from it by using ACs little realising that the more we use these ACs the more we will have to rely on them in the future (as more the electricity used, the more the fossil fuel will be burnt and hence more heat generated and global temperatures rise further - Endless cycle till the time the ACs become ineffective against the heat).

God, what have we made this planet earth to be - scarce food, housing shortage, polluted air, poisoned and scarce underground water. But we are happy with the malls, multiplexes and swanky cars.... Way to go, Great...
 
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Agriculture hijacked by industrialists and billionaires

I believe that the way agriculture is hijacked by industrialists and billionaires is also the main cause. Farmer community and the small traders are simple people who trade things to earn some money to feed their families. The GREED is missing from them.

But with big names coming into farm sector things have changed and that include virtual commodity trading on exchanges by FIIs, Banks, Mutual funds etc. They make profits by manipulating the prices by hook or crook.

Few years back we used to eat roti made of floor from chakki but now everything from wheat floor to besan is marketed by big companies like ShaktiBhog and PillsBury. They hoard the food grain in their big mills, process the floor to a high degree then chakkis, package it well and then sell it at high prices. Who benefits in this - neither the common man nor the hard working farmer. It is the farmer who will now bear the burnt of untimely rainfall and aule in last dew days and these mill owners will mint more money.

skadian123 said:
Very thought provoking thread indeed

Food shortage was a crisis waiting to happen, though not a disaster yet. We live in a materialistic world today with everything chic and happening appealing to us, be they those malls, multiplexes, highrise buildings and other concrete and glass jungles.

......
......

God, what have we made this planet earth to be - scarce food, housing shortage, polluted air, poisoned and scarce underground water. But we are happy with the malls, multiplexes and swanky cars.... Way to go, Great...
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Agriculture ki productivity abhi kuch saal to badheygi naheen, sirf ghateygi...Sirf Mehangai badheygi.

I came to know from some friend of mine, in Uttranchal People who have nothing to do with the agriculture buy Agriculture Lands. Taar lagwa key farm banwa diya, chowkidar bitha diya. Abh vaahan nah to kuch khheti houti hai, nah kuch aur.Baas rate badhane ka log intezaar karrenge aur fir bech denge.

Reason Property kah boom jo North India men aaya hai. Abh 30-50 lac ka kila hoh jayega to kheti karreyga koun. Inh desh key netaon kee khopadi men yeh baat naheen aatih ki Itani badi abadi ko khana bhito dena paddeyga...Sirf IT sey to sabka pet naheen badheyga. Aankhe kholo aur Naaye shehaar banane band karo. Kyoun ki naaye shehaar bante Productive land men hi hai, Koi banzaar zameen per paas bhi naheen fatakta.
 
rohittewatia said:
Agriculture ki productivity abhi kuch saal to badheygi naheen, sirf ghateygi...Sirf Mehangai badheygi.

I came to know from some friend of mine, in Uttranchal People who have nothing to do with the agriculture buy Agriculture Lands. Taar lagwa key farm banwa diya, chowkidar bitha diya. Abh vaahan nah to kuch khheti houti hai, nah kuch aur.Baas rate badhane ka log intezaar karrenge aur fir bech denge.

Reason Property kah boom jo North India men aaya hai. Abh 30-50 lac ka kila hoh jayega to kheti karreyga koun. Inh desh key netaon kee khopadi men yeh baat naheen aatih ki Itani badi abadi ko khana bhito dena paddeyga...Sirf IT sey to sabka pet naheen badheyga. Aankhe kholo aur Naaye shehaar banane band karo. Kyoun ki naaye shehaar bante Productive land men hi hai, Koi banzaar zameen per paas bhi naheen fatakta.
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And even i am of the view that a housing bubble may be on view for all of us !
the way property rates are increasing in delhi , ncr and north india , its gonna get down some time !


Sub prime ka de si version [:D]
 
control population

make it compulsory, forceful and strict..
no tyranny, but better get ur act 2gether,,,or u r doomed guys...!
 
deeps said:
make it compulsory, forceful and strict..
no tyranny, but better get ur act 2gether,,,or u r doomed guys...!
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Population control se kuchh nahi hone wala. Ab China ko ley lo, waha per young adult labour ki shortage hai or aane wale waqt me aur bhi jayda ho jai gi. China one child norm ko relax karne ki plan kar raha hai.
is waqt hindustan ke pass sab kuchh ha......... sirf zaroot hai ek achhe leader ki jo desh ko ek disha de sake aur is economic boom ka fayda aam insaan ko pahucha sake........aur ye aam insaan desh ke gaon me basta hai. Jis din gaon taraqui kare ga samzho us din desh ne taraqui kar li.;
 
Agriculture sector has to be the darling now

Population is not going to be in control for next few decades (or centuries). Therefore govt should focus on increasing the farm productivity. Today, farm productivity is less than human productivity in India leading to more imports. Stats shows that farm productivity has increased only marginally in last 2 decades. still close to 65% of agriculture land depends on good monsoon i,ee. Inder devta. Govt has to think long term and come out with a solid plan and will to take steps for betterment of agriculture sector.

deeps said:
make it compulsory, forceful and strict..
no tyranny, but better get ur act 2gether,,,or u r doomed guys...!
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We know only JATs can fulfill this vast gap between Globalization, Industrialization & AGRICULTURE very soon...so as to meet National demand & yield money & glory for Indian Villages...:):):)
 
Source: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...or_rising_food_prices/articleshow/3006775.cms

 Now, Bush blames India for rising food prices
3 May 2008, 1036 hrs IST
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PTI

 WASHINGTON: Prosperity in countries like India is "good" but it triggers increased demand for "better nutrition" which in turn leads to higher food prices, US President George W Bush said.

The comments come close on the heels of US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's controversial statement that "apparent improvement" in the diets of people in India and China and consequent food export caps is among the causes of the current global food crisis.

At an interactive session on economy in Missouri, Bush argued that there are many factors for the present crisis, only one of which was investment on biofuels like ethanol.

"Worldwide there is increasing demand. There turns out to be prosperity in developing world, which is good. It's going to be good for you because you'll be selling products in the countries, you know, big countries perhaps, and it's hard to sell products into countries that aren't prosperous. In other words, the more prosperous the world is, the more opportunity there is," the US President said.

"It also, however, increases demand. So, for example, just as an interesting thought for you, there are 350 million people in India who are classified as middle class. That's bigger than America. Their middle class is larger than our entire population.

"And when you start getting wealth, you start demanding better nutrition and better food, and so demand is high, and that causes the price to go up," he said.

Bush also listed change in weather patterns and increase in basic costs like that of energy as factors contributing to higher food prices.

"No question that ethanol has had a part of it. But I simply do not subscribe to the notion that it is the main cost driver for your food going up," Bush said.

Several international experts have in recent days held biofuels, until recently cast as a miracle alternative to polluting fossil fuels, for being responsible for usurping arable land and distorting world food prices.

"Actually, the reason why food prices are high now is because, one, energy costs are high, and if you're a farmer, you're going to pass on your cost of energy in the products you sell, otherwise you'd go broke.

"And when you're paying more for your diesel, paying more for your fertiliser because it's got a lot of, you know, natural gas in it, in other words, when your basic costs are going up, so does the cost of food," Bush said.

He said there are two aspects of rising food prices -- its effect on US citizens and the fact that there is a food scarcity in the world.

"We don't have a scarcity issue in America...We got a price issue. Our shelves aren't going empty, it's just costing more money," Bush said.

"There is scarcity in the world, and I happen to believe when we find people who can't find food we ought to help them find it," he said adding, "America is by far the most generous nation when it comes to helping the hungry."

"We're an unbelievably compassionate nation," he said. "I think we ought to change our food policy in Africa and other developing countries...buying food directly from farmers as opposed to giving people food. I think we ought to be saying, 'Why don't we help you be able to deal with scarcity by encouraging your farmers grow and be efficient growers? Otherwise, we're going to be in this cycle forever."
 
I thought India always had food shortages. Duniye bhar ke bhooke bhikhari hain hamare desh main..... not a whole lot changed after 1947.
Lallu yadav aur Mayawati jise khaage sabke naam ki roti.
 
Brother Sidharth, Food Crisis or Not..US JATS have enough LAND..ZAMEEN...DHARTI...to feed our families and more...brrruuuuhhhaaa !!!! ...Fikar na kar mere bhai....
 
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Dear all pls look at the statement of MR. Bush and some stats also which r against his statement.

Asked about the rising food prices at an event in Missouri on Friday, Bush launched into an explanation about the increasing demand worldwide arising from greater prosperity in the developing world "which is good" because it enabled the US to sell products into big countries.

Bush then offered the example of India — "just as an interesting thought for you" — which he said has 350 million people who are classified as middle class. "That’s bigger than America. Their middle class is larger than our entire population. And when you start getting wealth, you start demanding better nutrition and better food. And so demand is high, and that causes the price to go up," he said.
Several US lawmakers and economists have referred in the same vein to the growing prosperity and increased consumption in [COLOR=blue! important][COLOR=blue! important]China[/COLOR][/COLOR] and India, but none have implied that the two countries should eat less or go hungry — the prickly interpretation being bandied by India’s tetchy politicians.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...ood_debate_netas_boil/articleshow/3008518.cms
Look at some stats also

US eats 5 times more than India per capita

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...than_India_per_capita/articleshow/3008449.cms


But don't worry we have enough food to eat, we have reached our target of food and even we are having excess food so cheersssssssss.
 
vijay123 said:
Is this really true?


Why price rise has anything to do with slowdown in USA?


.
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If we were to believe todays headlines, then Mr. Bush says that Indian middle class is the prime reason for shortage of food worldwide but i guess he somewhere lost that page of his speech wherein bio fuel plans of US of A were mentioned to be a prime reason of food shortage. :tamatar:tamatar:tamatar

Phunny Guy
 
Is it really

Is it there, what we call food shortage? by last year no body has raised the issue that India is heading for food shortage. Last 4 years of Government we have not seen anybody uttering this word and last year they have even purchased more grains then their target and even they didn't have the stoarage facility. Is the situation changed since last year.

Shayad legta hai 4 saal main jo bachhe paida hue hain unka pet thoda jayada beda hai, ghabrao mat koi bad or be dimaag neta ye bhi bolne wala hai.

Simple reason increase inflation, show the food crises, import grain from the foreign country through the trading firms of leaders and then next govt. will tell that previous govt has done this scam and then long process of committee and reports on scams. Shayad legta hai sab leader mil ke kha pe rahe hain or committee wale bhi foreign tours isi ke naam se legaate hain.

Its last year of Government, kuch to khana peena hai na bhai ....... thoda tum khao thoda hum khaate hain ... neta neta bhai bhai ..... agli baar Government aaye na aaye ... to isi baar agle 5 saal ka kharcha paani nikaal lete hain...

Kuch to samjho........
 
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