The financial pandemic...

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The sea is still not quite and steady. But adventurers with good back up plans and long distance sailors can start their journey. Small divers should just dive purposefully upto a calculated depth, and they should come out as soon as they found any silver coin. Don't wait for gold coins unless you have ample oxygen on your backs.

Yes, either long term investment or just intra-day shots is the call.
 
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one can never overcome greed nd fear in dis market. nd dese 2 r da only factors vich contributes to losses nd moreover dere isnt ne high or low levels in dis market. no budy in dis world cn predict vere wud da mrkt go. it doesnt seem 2 surge bt yes it cn plummet down making new lows. its still 2 b bottomed out. so wht i suggest,in such a volatile mrkt,is 2 stay away nd save ur so hard earned money.
 
As easy as this :

identify which companies cannot fail ( means the Govt will not let them fail for their strategic importance ) and just invest in them for long term , not an year , but a couple !

2009 is going to be even more painful .. so dont expect returns in an year !
 
Anyways, what did you expect? There might be bear market rallies, but it is going down for 2009 as far as I can see. With Obama coming in, there was bound to be an over-reaction, but as the euphoria settles down, people would realise what deep sh*t they are in. Also look at CDX/ITRAXX- credit is trading so wide, pricing in deep recession- compared to that equities are on dope. I'd have bought gold as an inflation hedge, but it is already zooming. Maybe oil is not a bad bet right now. It has already taken a big hit. If there are any signs of recovery, this could be the first one to react. Looking at the supply of money now and adding a couple of conflicts to it, people might rush to black gold at first signs of inflation.

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I do not have that much experience in fiannce industry , a year that's it!

But my hunch is that it is going to be bad because it has already been long , people do not lose memories so easily , so even if economic conditions/data go good from here , people will look at it with skepticism. :)

Yes oil is a good bet , isse neeche nahi jaa sakta , because the supply constraints are also there ....
 
anilsinghd said:
Anyways, what did you expect? There might be bear market rallies, but it is going down for 2009 as far as I can see. With Obama coming in, there was bound to be an over-reaction, but as the euphoria settles down, people would realise what deep sh*t they are in. Also look at CDX/ITRAXX- credit is trading so wide, pricing in deep recession- compared to that equities are on dope. I'd have bought gold as an inflation hedge, but it is already zooming. Maybe oil is not a bad bet right now. It has already taken a big hit. If there are any signs of recovery, this could be the first one to react. Looking at the supply of money now and adding a couple of conflicts to it, people might rush to black gold at first signs of inflation.

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I do not have that much experience in fiannce industry , a year that's it!

But my hunch is that it is going to be bad because it has already been long , people do not lose memories so easily , so even if economic conditions/data go good from here , people will look at it with skepticism. :)

Yes oil is a good bet , isse neeche nahi jaa sakta , because the supply constraints are also there ....
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Actually studies show that during all recessions, markets starts rallying before the recession gets over. As market starts pricing in the recovery. Throughout last year, there were commentators saying that this was the bottom, and market would now rally (even though recession would last 3 more quarters). So as soon as there are firm signs of recovery, the market should go into the bull mode, despite the recession holding on. But my point is that there would be some false starts, that is bear market or relief rallies. Where people would take a symbolic event (like Obama presidency) as signs of good things to come. There are dangers in not acting fast enough. As the inflation whenever it comes back might come back like a shock. But right now I think a couple of countries can easily go down under and there could be quite a few corporate defaults.
 
kapil.dalal said:
Actually studies show that during all recessions, markets starts rallying before the recession gets over. As market starts pricing in the recovery. Throughout last year, there were commentators saying that this was the bottom, and market would now rally (even though recession would last 3 more quarters). So as soon as there are firm signs of recovery, the market should go into the bull mode, despite the recession holding on. But my point is that there would be some false starts, that is bear market or relief rallies. Where people would take a symbolic event (like Obama presidency) as signs of good things to come. There are dangers in not acting fast enough. As the inflation whenever it comes back might come back like a shock. But right now I think a couple of countries can easily go down under and there could be quite a few corporate defaults.
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I also kind of agree , the important point is that the statements and the events have scared people like anything.

When Gordon Brown uses " Global Finance Industry" in all of his speeches , interviews etc , I am pretty sure everyone would be scared to near death :D

Investors being no exception.

Also i guess the asset price has gone so much and it has to go down to reality levels before it can go up again .... So its gonna be long and painful , much to dismay of people like you and me ! :(

More to me coz its you guys who did all these crappy CDOs and CMOs and CLOs , I am like innocent :D :p he he he he
 
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