rinkusheoran
New member
There was no congress 'wave' in election 2009:-read the fine print.
This notion is colored by the electoral performance of the party in the cities of Delhi & Mumbai. While the congress did creditably well in Delhi, its victory in Mumbai has less to do with the imaginary enhanced appeal of the party and more to do with mith the emergence of Raj Thackeray’s MNS as the spoiler for the BJP-shiv sena combine.
If the congress’s revival is not the reason for its stupendous success in the polls, what factors have contributed to its victory? The party benefited primarily from Media analyst of the 15th lok sabha election results has largely been aimed at forcing certain perceptions that have no empirical evidence. There have been analyses on how the surge in the congress’s tally heralds a nationwide revival of the party. The congress’s national vote share has gone up only marginally from 26.5% in 2004 to 28.6% in 2009. Curiously, the vote share of 28.6% secured by the congress in 2009 is almost the same as what it got in 1999 (28.3%) when it got its lowest ever tally of 114 seats in the general elections.
How could one say that the congress has revived nationally when its national vote share has only increased marginally? Further , even as the party has gained in terms of votes in seven states- Punjab, Kerla, MP, UP, Rajasthan, Bihar and Uttarakhand- it has lost votes by more than 3% points in number of them ( such as Orissa, Jharkhand, Maharastra, AP, J&K and HP). UP is the only state where the congress has shown real signs of revival with party’s vote share going up by an impressive 6%.
The other myth doing the rounds is that the congress has an enhanced appeal among metropolitan voters due to its forward – looking policies, as well as the appeal of PM Manmohan Singh among the educated middle classes, and the ’youth appeal’ of Rahul Gandhi among the young voters this has no electoral proof. The congress’s vote share in metropolitan constituencies has virtually remained the same, 30.7% inn 2004 and 30.4 % in 2009. Therefore , the premise that new generation of urban voters with increased prosperity and greater opportunities finds the congress more attractive and in sync with their aspirations has no bias.
the decline and division in the vote share of its opponents. The fall in the vote of the BJP in number of states; huge negative swings against regional arties like TDP (8%), the AIADMK(7%) and the SP(4%); the emergence of new parties like Prajarajyam in AP; rise of MNS in Maharashtra and break-up of BJP-BJD alliance in Orissa have all the contributed to the congress’s gains even as it suffered vote losses. In UP, it secured 21 of the 80 seats, even though it polled only 18% of the popular vote. What helped the congress in UP was the favourable distribution of votes-concentrates in a few pockets-that helped the party to translate its fewer votes into seats.
It is given that the congress has won this election comprehensively. The scale of the congress’s success has astounded everyone, including party big-wigs. The’wave’ in favour of the congress, however , was invisible-because there wasn’t any.
It is the failure of the BJP and the other parties to hold their own that caused the BJP’s defeat; not because of a serious challenge from the congress. This should be a message for all parties like BJP and Others.
This notion is colored by the electoral performance of the party in the cities of Delhi & Mumbai. While the congress did creditably well in Delhi, its victory in Mumbai has less to do with the imaginary enhanced appeal of the party and more to do with mith the emergence of Raj Thackeray’s MNS as the spoiler for the BJP-shiv sena combine.
If the congress’s revival is not the reason for its stupendous success in the polls, what factors have contributed to its victory? The party benefited primarily from Media analyst of the 15th lok sabha election results has largely been aimed at forcing certain perceptions that have no empirical evidence. There have been analyses on how the surge in the congress’s tally heralds a nationwide revival of the party. The congress’s national vote share has gone up only marginally from 26.5% in 2004 to 28.6% in 2009. Curiously, the vote share of 28.6% secured by the congress in 2009 is almost the same as what it got in 1999 (28.3%) when it got its lowest ever tally of 114 seats in the general elections.
How could one say that the congress has revived nationally when its national vote share has only increased marginally? Further , even as the party has gained in terms of votes in seven states- Punjab, Kerla, MP, UP, Rajasthan, Bihar and Uttarakhand- it has lost votes by more than 3% points in number of them ( such as Orissa, Jharkhand, Maharastra, AP, J&K and HP). UP is the only state where the congress has shown real signs of revival with party’s vote share going up by an impressive 6%.
The other myth doing the rounds is that the congress has an enhanced appeal among metropolitan voters due to its forward – looking policies, as well as the appeal of PM Manmohan Singh among the educated middle classes, and the ’youth appeal’ of Rahul Gandhi among the young voters this has no electoral proof. The congress’s vote share in metropolitan constituencies has virtually remained the same, 30.7% inn 2004 and 30.4 % in 2009. Therefore , the premise that new generation of urban voters with increased prosperity and greater opportunities finds the congress more attractive and in sync with their aspirations has no bias.
the decline and division in the vote share of its opponents. The fall in the vote of the BJP in number of states; huge negative swings against regional arties like TDP (8%), the AIADMK(7%) and the SP(4%); the emergence of new parties like Prajarajyam in AP; rise of MNS in Maharashtra and break-up of BJP-BJD alliance in Orissa have all the contributed to the congress’s gains even as it suffered vote losses. In UP, it secured 21 of the 80 seats, even though it polled only 18% of the popular vote. What helped the congress in UP was the favourable distribution of votes-concentrates in a few pockets-that helped the party to translate its fewer votes into seats.
It is given that the congress has won this election comprehensively. The scale of the congress’s success has astounded everyone, including party big-wigs. The’wave’ in favour of the congress, however , was invisible-because there wasn’t any.
It is the failure of the BJP and the other parties to hold their own that caused the BJP’s defeat; not because of a serious challenge from the congress. This should be a message for all parties like BJP and Others.
Manne laagai aapnai infraction lenn ka jee kar rya sai.Kisse moderator kai chaum utth gya tai pher tai aapnai bera e hai