Dear Sandeep,
A large state, with regional parties having fairly large dedicated vote bank, it could be any body's guess. However considerirng the state politics for past 17 years, it may be better for the state if Congr[HTML][/HTML]ess comes back to the power.
Mayavati: Has a large SC/ST following, which itself amount to single largest section of the society in the country. This community has been very actively behind her in the past and unless, she does some thing that makes that vote bank angry, it is likely that this will stay with her. The only other party that can make a dent in this vote bank is the Congress.
Mulayam Singh Yadav: He is in power and can manipulate a lot during the election. Thus he definitely have an advantage. I guess, these days, even Ajit Singh is in his camp. If Ajit Singh stays with him, then he will have a better vote bank specially in the Jat Belt. Even though Ch. Ajit Singh's base is shrinking as the new voters are becoming eligible, he still has the distinction of being bad among the worsts, in the Jat Belt specially the elderly voters, who still grant him the legacy of Late Ch. Charan Singh. But, Ch, Ajit Singh and Mulayam are both hard bargainer and it would be interesting to see how they shape up to the elections. Further, Mulayam's muslim card has also become old and that may just compound the problem for SP.
Ch. Ajit Singh: A limited but dedicated vote bank. Only good for getting in to hard bargaining with any political party that would assure him some lucrative position.
BJP: Looks like a demoralized lot after they lost power at teh center. The upper caste vote is an old theme now, and mandir card may not be worth playing every time. Unless makes an alliance either with Maya or Mulayam, (both hostile to them) on their own they are unlikely to get to the power.
Congress: Has been out of power for a very long time. With economy doing well, they might just take credit for what they are doing at national level. Further there would always be an anti establishment section that might come to their folds. Every party would try to get Ch. Ajit Singh to their folds as the combined votes with any party, may make the difference in being in power or out of power. But again, Mr. Ajit Singh's credibility to change parties and being an opportunist, may be a double edged weapon. Traditionally Jats have not voted for the Congress since 1967, when Ch. Charan Singh formed BKD. Thus an alliance between Congress, and Ch. Ajit Singh looks less likely. I wonder even if it comes, whether or not it would be beneficial to Congress or not?
Congress, itself is not very strong at ground level in the state. There is still time, and if Congress really want to make a come back (which they would try hard) they need to get problems resolved at the grass root level. They need to bring a face which is fresh, popular and may be unexpected to get the votes. Rahul Gandhi or Priyanka Wadera as a projected CM may just be the right thing to do. Simply, they would be non controvercial among the congress rank. There would not be a revolt at any level within the party. This might just be just an opportunity for them to get back to power. It will attract both SC and Muslim Votes for them, their traditional vote bank for years.
The election will be fought on caste basis, as has always been the case. The local equations will decide the each constituency results. It is too early and too dangerous to predict any thing at this time, even if one is in the field.
Let us wait and watch. Even though I have never been a Congress Supporter, but considering all the parties and their leaders and their past performance, it would be in the interest of the state, if one single party comes to the power. Among all the players available today, I personally feel that the Congress may be the a less evil.
Thirdly
Prashant bhai
Delhi has a history, they had succesive party coming up and ruling Delhi, BJP Then Congress then BJP.... it was congress last time who came to power with 2 successive wins
I dont think congress is doing any wrong to Delhi. We have best roads, best infrastructure, the problem is because of half right of governance with govt and not in the govt.
Thirdly, Congress lost because of celieng issue and it had nothin to do with cong policy. but courts order which congress followed relgiously.
And to ask you, whom do u see as CM of Delhi if BJP wins? who has been active in politics in last 8 years of congress rule?
Sahib singh? or Expelled Khurana?
Ch. Ajit Singh has done no good to his constituency. I can say this cause i am from there. And rightly said new Voters are smart and eligible and hence, his vote bank is shrinking and it will. I myself dont like him, neither as a leader nor as a human.
UP is a big state and division of this state into smaller two or may be three states would not be a bad idea. However, the demand of the division of the state has not been for the reasons of development. More often than not it has been to get a segment of state that brings a particular party or leader into majority so that he can become undisputed leader in the small state.
We have heard the drawbacks of the big state. We have also heard that western UP produces much more and gets very little for development. This is all well known. However we are yet to hear a concrete plan from any one propogating the smaller state, in terms of action plan, priorities, revenue stream to fund those programs and other details, in nutshell if I can say in military term we don't have a "Staff Check".
Unless, we have that, a case can't be projected forcefully. For doing so, one needs to study about the state a lot, get the facts together and then burn mid-night oil to get some thing meaningful coming out which can be sold to larger section of the public and off course to the law makers in New Delhi.
Can Chota Chaudhary do that? or has he done some work on it, I am not sure about it. At least I have not heard about it. If some one has, then kindly do share Ch. Ajit Singh's vision of Harit Pradesh with all of us.
Dear Friends,
I just spoke to one of our relatives, who has been into politics for a very long time (never contested the elections though, but he had run some very good winning campaigns, his disciple is a MP).
As per him, it is going to be a hung assembly, with Mulayam Singh and Mayawati playing the power game. The congress seems to be in a very poor situation, as they don't have any popular leader to project. BJP is having its own problem. As per him, even though it would be better for the State if either of the National Parties (BJP or Congress) forms a stable government, but the ground reality is some thing different. UP is a fragmented state and that is going to show up in elections.
As far as Ajit Singh is concerned, I guess it is Ms. Chaudhary who is holding every thing for his party in UP.
As per his assessment, it is going to be a hung assembly with after election horse trading and money making. It purely is a business. There are a few more players in field, like Ram Vilas Paswan's party. How much he will erode Mayavati's base, only time will tell us. Let us see as the election comes colser.
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