Uttar Pradesh Election-2007

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gabbar

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Hello Everybody,
Please post your views about coming elections in UP. Prospects of Mayawati ,Mulayam Singh ,BJP and Congress
 
UP Elections

Dear Sandeep,
A large state, with regional parties having fairly large dedicated vote bank, it could be any body's guess. However considerirng the state politics for past 17 years, it may be better for the state if Congress comes back to the power.

Mayavati: Has a large SC/ST following, which itself amount to single largest section of the society in the country. This community has been very actively behind her in the past and unless, she does some thing that makes that vote bank angry, it is likely that this will stay with her. The only other party that can make a dent in this vote bank is the Congress.

Mulayam Singh Yadav: He is in power and can manipulate a lot during the election. Thus he definitely have an advantage. I guess, these days, even Ajit Singh is in his camp. If Ajit Singh stays with him, then he will have a better vote bank specially in the Jat Belt. Even though Ch. Ajit Singh's base is shrinking as the new voters are becoming eligible, he still has the distinction of being bad among the worsts, in the Jat Belt specially the elderly voters, who still grant him the legacy of Late Ch. Charan Singh. But, Ch, Ajit Singh and Mulayam are both hard bargainer and it would be interesting to see how they shape up to the elections. Further, Mulayam's muslim card has also become old and that may just compound the problem for SP.

Ch. Ajit Singh: A limited but dedicated vote bank. Only good for getting in to hard bargaining with any political party that would assure him some lucrative position.

BJP: Looks like a demoralized lot after they lost power at teh center. The upper caste vote is an old theme now, and mandir card may not be worth playing every time. Unless makes an alliance either with Maya or Mulayam, (both hostile to them) on their own they are unlikely to get to the power.

Congress: Has been out of power for a very long time. With economy doing well, they might just take credit for what they are doing at national level. Further there would always be an anti establishment section that might come to their folds. Every party would try to get Ch. Ajit Singh to their folds as the combined votes with any party, may make the difference in being in power or out of power. But again, Mr. Ajit Singh's credibility to change parties and being an opportunist, may be a double edged weapon. Traditionally Jats have not voted for the Congress since 1967, when Ch. Charan Singh formed BKD. Thus an alliance between Congress, and Ch. Ajit Singh looks less likely. I wonder even if it comes, whether or not it would be beneficial to Congress or not?
Congress, itself is not very strong at ground level in the state. There is still time, and if Congress really want to make a come back (which they would try hard) they need to get problems resolved at the grass root level. They need to bring a face which is fresh, popular and may be unexpected to get the votes. Rahul Gandhi or Priyanka Wadera as a projected CM may just be the right thing to do. Simply, they would be non controvercial among the congress rank. There would not be a revolt at any level within the party. This might just be just an opportunity for them to get back to power. It will attract both SC and Muslim Votes for them, their traditional vote bank for years.

The election will be fought on caste basis, as has always been the case. The local equations will decide the each constituency results. It is too early and too dangerous to predict any thing at this time, even if one is in the field.

Let us wait and watch. Even though I have never been a Congress Supporter, but considering all the parties and their leaders and their past performance, it would be in the interest of the state, if one single party comes to the power. Among all the players available today, I personally feel that the Congress may be the a less evil.
 
Tewatia Ji...... congress is most corrupted & most untrustable party... Congress is nothing only inheriting the principles of flirter "Nehru" .. who is responsible for such a miserable condition of India... Uss Nehru ne aapne jeevan main majnugiri tai nyarra kuch na karra.... > As far as UP elction are concerned Congress is not even going to win a majority in forthcoming 25 years ... What credit do u give to Congreess goverment in Central?? Congress is loossing his Votebank in Delhi... IN next assembly election it will be completely cleared in punjab.. & sure it will also have a defeat in Delhi election. Iss congress ne nass tai nyarra kadhhe kuch na karya.......................UP main to hamesha tai kichddi banti aayi.. eibbke bhi wahi hogya... & in UP congress must be stand last.........

arr rahul ho ya Priyanks western UP(JATBelt) mainto in sable JUTT baajenge jo yeh unghe ku lakhaye bhi............
Dear Sandeep,
A large state, with regional parties having fairly large dedicated vote bank, it could be any body's guess. However considerirng the state politics for past 17 years, it may be better for the state if Congr[HTML][/HTML]ess comes back to the power.

Mayavati: Has a large SC/ST following, which itself amount to single largest section of the society in the country. This community has been very actively behind her in the past and unless, she does some thing that makes that vote bank angry, it is likely that this will stay with her. The only other party that can make a dent in this vote bank is the Congress.

Mulayam Singh Yadav: He is in power and can manipulate a lot during the election. Thus he definitely have an advantage. I guess, these days, even Ajit Singh is in his camp. If Ajit Singh stays with him, then he will have a better vote bank specially in the Jat Belt. Even though Ch. Ajit Singh's base is shrinking as the new voters are becoming eligible, he still has the distinction of being bad among the worsts, in the Jat Belt specially the elderly voters, who still grant him the legacy of Late Ch. Charan Singh. But, Ch, Ajit Singh and Mulayam are both hard bargainer and it would be interesting to see how they shape up to the elections. Further, Mulayam's muslim card has also become old and that may just compound the problem for SP.

Ch. Ajit Singh: A limited but dedicated vote bank. Only good for getting in to hard bargaining with any political party that would assure him some lucrative position.

BJP: Looks like a demoralized lot after they lost power at teh center. The upper caste vote is an old theme now, and mandir card may not be worth playing every time. Unless makes an alliance either with Maya or Mulayam, (both hostile to them) on their own they are unlikely to get to the power.

Congress: Has been out of power for a very long time. With economy doing well, they might just take credit for what they are doing at national level. Further there would always be an anti establishment section that might come to their folds. Every party would try to get Ch. Ajit Singh to their folds as the combined votes with any party, may make the difference in being in power or out of power. But again, Mr. Ajit Singh's credibility to change parties and being an opportunist, may be a double edged weapon. Traditionally Jats have not voted for the Congress since 1967, when Ch. Charan Singh formed BKD. Thus an alliance between Congress, and Ch. Ajit Singh looks less likely. I wonder even if it comes, whether or not it would be beneficial to Congress or not?
Congress, itself is not very strong at ground level in the state. There is still time, and if Congress really want to make a come back (which they would try hard) they need to get problems resolved at the grass root level. They need to bring a face which is fresh, popular and may be unexpected to get the votes. Rahul Gandhi or Priyanka Wadera as a projected CM may just be the right thing to do. Simply, they would be non controvercial among the congress rank. There would not be a revolt at any level within the party. This might just be just an opportunity for them to get back to power. It will attract both SC and Muslim Votes for them, their traditional vote bank for years.

The election will be fought on caste basis, as has always been the case. The local equations will decide the each constituency results. It is too early and too dangerous to predict any thing at this time, even if one is in the field.

Let us wait and watch. Even though I have never been a Congress Supporter, but considering all the parties and their leaders and their past performance, it would be in the interest of the state, if one single party comes to the power. Among all the players available today, I personally feel that the Congress may be the a less evil.
 
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It Is Just My Analysis

Dear Prashant,
Firstly, I have never said that Congress is an honest party. Again a party has nothing to do with honesty, or dishonesty, it is the local MLA who needs to be honest to get the work done, irrespective of party he / she belongs to. I can imagine the passion of people of Baghpat and Chaprauli have for Ch. Ajit Singh.
It is purely an analysis. The Congress has been out of power in UP since 1989. 17 years, I don't think any thing worthwhile has happened in UP. The only silver lining in these 17 years has been the first tenure of Mr. Kalyan Singh (lasted about a year) that one can talk about governance. You have a CM who feels that copying in examination is legitimate. That is when he himself had been a teacher at one time. You have another candidate in Mayawati, who had spent millions of tax payers money in creating Ambedkar's statues.
Nehru is long gone. If we want to blame Nehru for every thing that has happened or is going to happen, we can keep doing it. Nehru died in 1964, Ch. Charan Singh left Congress in 1967. What does it mean? To me it means that he also accepted Nehru's leadership. We at this time can only imagine what would have happened then, and we all can come up with different theory. I myself have been a big fan of Ch. Charan Singh, but let me tell you, I have heard some very disturbing stories from the very people who had been in his closest circles.
I don't care if Congress comes to power in 100 years or not, what I am doing is just an analysis.
What Ch. Ajit Singh has done to his constituency? Can any one be sure as to which party he would be joining in next couple of years?
Let us be practical. Congress is not Nehru alone. If Nehru could do every thing he wanted, then all those great leaders in the Congress, who felt Nehru was wrong and did not revolt, were I would say "Spineless".
I myself don't agree with Nehru on most issues. However that does not and can not take the credit away from whatever his contribution has been to the nation building. I would say the industrial revolution was one of the best thing he did. He did start the cooperative societies, only to see that our own local people making money out of it. Nehru could not be present every where. Why blame Nehru for all of our misries.
You are calling him Majnu, What does that has to do with governance. President Clinten's affair had been on world TV for almost two years, yet he has been one of the best US Presidents.
Unfortunate part is that we do get swayed with emotions. Nation building can't be done with emotions alone. We need to rise above the caste and religion level and see the broader picture. I would say people should vote for the best candidate in their constituency.
I remember in 1974, Ch. Brahampal Singh was the most qualified candidate in our constituency, the only problem was that he was contesting on then Jansangh's ticket and lost.

I personally feel, with all its drawbacks Congress would still be a better choice than having Mulayam or Mayawati. I feel that it is better to have a National Party ruling our state. The national party CM has a counter check on him, and considering the quality of politicians we have, it may be a better thing to have.
 
Ch. Ajit Singh has done no good to his constituency. I can say this cause i am from there. And rightly said new Voters are smart and eligible and hence, his vote bank is shrinking and it will. I myself dont like him, neither as a leader nor as a human.
 
I agree on the point that congress is a better choice and it has been always.

They did right things at the right time for the country and still are doing it.

They didnt allow foriegn investments in India for a long period of time, that was a smart move as we have just got independence and didnt want any threat

They allowed gradually and we saw Coke and IBM moving in but thn Janta Dal and BJP(Vajpayee) came they , just as a political move asked these companies to pack there bags overnightly and asked them to leave...... How fair was that?

Then again congress felt the need and accepted globalisation in 1991 and we saw many companies moving in. When BJP came to powers, trust me companies were shivering i mean MNCs , because of a bad history but BJP Did nothing much thankfully and revised congress policies and and published them under BJPs name.

And current scenario is in front of u
 
Thirdly
Prashant bhai

Delhi has a history, they had succesive party coming up and ruling Delhi, BJP Then Congress then BJP.... it was congress last time who came to power with 2 successive wins

I dont think congress is doing any wrong to Delhi. We have best roads, best infrastructure, the problem is because of half right of governance with govt and not in the govt.

Thirdly, Congress lost because of celieng issue and it had nothin to do with cong policy. but courts order which congress followed relgiously.

And to ask you, whom do u see as CM of Delhi if BJP wins? who has been active in politics in last 8 years of congress rule?

Sahib singh? or Expelled Khurana?
 
Well...
Prospects or no prospects... UP is a fire ball game for all politicians and all of them want to play it safe.. as safe as possible....

Ch. Ajit Singh and Mulayam Singh Yadav have missed the slot... They are engaged in fire over naive and trivial issues like naming of roads and establishment of idols....

Moreover.. the plan of aquiring AGRICULTURAL land for the devvelopment of high tech cities is another Albatros hung in the neck of this incumbent Government.....

Mulayam Singh Yadav, Anil Dhirubhai Ambani, Amitabh Bachhan, Ratan Tata.. all of them have become synonyms..... And this Government has overall overshadowed the importance of socialist pattern of the state......
An agrarian state in the first place shall not at all look for industrial development UNTIL it is full proof of the il effects on its agriculture.... Peasents are commiting suicides... In western UP in Eastern UP... All over..... And but... Industrialists are gaining!!!! So Mulayam Singh Shall not hold power again....

Mayawati.... One thing which this lady has done GREAT is she is out with her list of contesting members some 7 months in advance of the issue of notification.. this will give the voters a chance to see and examine these contestants as WORKERS in the battle field.... Who bears what???

Ch. Ajit Singh.... It is not Ch. Ajit Singh now.... he is known because of Mrs. Anuradha Chaudhary.. who undoutbly has done good and freat job being an MLA, being an MP and being the chairperson of UP Floods control board.... But... It won't be enough for our Chota Chaudhary this time... He needs to open his eyes now.... and get ready for the elections...

INC... yeah one player who has not taken a back seat in last 5 years.. after the defeat.. I have been seeing their organization getting strong.... They have worked in villages with full energy.. have made members of the party... and have preached their IDEOLOGY which unfortunately Chaudhary sahab fails at...

BJP... This player is a strong contender in many a places where they have sitting MLA and MP.... The anti incumbency factor will certainly play its role!!

All in all.. this will be a hung essembly.... now the point of policy for the politicians is alliances!!!

Cheers!!

Shobhit Deshwal
 
OK Vikas ji...if u talk about Best roads & best infrastructure.. that was not cropped up by congress. Delhi is the National capital....why will not it acquire development & progress ?.... So discussion about the developement in the NCR region will not be having any sense.. I think u can undertsand it better.....
OK u said Congress do everything at right time... So Reservation step is also taken at right time!!....;)
Congress is now getting failed at every step... so many problems are arising in Delhi >>powerfailures, prices hike........
What is ur problem if Sahib singh(a JAT) becomes CM of delhi?

Thirdly
Prashant bhai

Delhi has a history, they had succesive party coming up and ruling Delhi, BJP Then Congress then BJP.... it was congress last time who came to power with 2 successive wins

I dont think congress is doing any wrong to Delhi. We have best roads, best infrastructure, the problem is because of half right of governance with govt and not in the govt.

Thirdly, Congress lost because of celieng issue and it had nothin to do with cong policy. but courts order which congress followed relgiously.

And to ask you, whom do u see as CM of Delhi if BJP wins? who has been active in politics in last 8 years of congress rule?

Sahib singh? or Expelled Khurana?
 
Sompal shastri to bana ke dekh liya tha wha MP.. ussne konsee dhur todd di majhe bataye kerek.. konsse kille thokke gionwayye kerre........... arrre Ajeet dhorre jaake hokka peewan ki jagaah to mil ja inn UP aallo JAATOIEN ku... na to mharre terr jissu ke Gate the bhittar bhi na baddan detta koi.........................
Ch. Ajit Singh has done no good to his constituency. I can say this cause i am from there. And rightly said new Voters are smart and eligible and hence, his vote bank is shrinking and it will. I myself dont like him, neither as a leader nor as a human.
 
Just Spoke to Some One

Dear Friends,
I just spoke to one of our relatives, who has been into politics for a very long time (never contested the elections though, but he had run some very good winning campaigns, his disciple is a MP).
As per him, it is going to be a hung assembly, with Mulayam Singh and Mayawati playing the power game. The congress seems to be in a very poor situation, as they don't have any popular leader to project. BJP is having its own problem. As per him, even though it would be better for the State if either of the National Parties (BJP or Congress) forms a stable government, but the ground reality is some thing different. UP is a fragmented state and that is going to show up in elections.

As far as Ajit Singh is concerned, I guess it is Ms. Chaudhary who is holding every thing for his party in UP.

As per his assessment, it is going to be a hung assembly with after election horse trading and money making. It purely is a business. There are a few more players in field, like Ram Vilas Paswan's party. How much he will erode Mayavati's base, only time will tell us. Let us see as the election comes colser.
 
Col Saheb,

Welldone for giving the very ballanced and most likely pre-eletion scenerio in UP! You are right in saying that Congress stand better Chances only if they project Rahul or Priyanka as CM.

Best cource of action for Chhote Chaudhry, who has become notorious for his unreliable actions and sudden change of mind is that he should be going with Congress.

Now, most of the members participating in this debate are from Jat heartland in UP and would agree with me that Ch.Ajit Singh should fight for the 'Harit Paradesh'. He should be honest in his approach and shouldn't sound like any other election time gimmicks. Now the question is wheher the congress will support this or not, if yes, then at what level?



Sateypal
 
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Harit Pradesh

UP is a big state and division of this state into smaller two or may be three states would not be a bad idea. However, the demand of the division of the state has not been for the reasons of development. More often than not it has been to get a segment of state that brings a particular party or leader into majority so that he can become undisputed leader in the small state.

We have heard the drawbacks of the big state. We have also heard that western UP produces much more and gets very little for development. This is all well known. However we are yet to hear a concrete plan from any one propogating the smaller state, in terms of action plan, priorities, revenue stream to fund those programs and other details, in nutshell if I can say in military term we don't have a "Staff Check".
Unless, we have that, a case can't be projected forcefully. For doing so, one needs to study about the state a lot, get the facts together and then burn mid-night oil to get some thing meaningful coming out which can be sold to larger section of the public and off course to the law makers in New Delhi.
Can Chota Chaudhary do that? or has he done some work on it, I am not sure about it. At least I have not heard about it. If some one has, then kindly do share Ch. Ajit Singh's vision of Harit Pradesh with all of us.

 
i think it will be better if mayawati comes to to CM of up beacause all of the leader rin up r too crupted ,and mayawati so but she atleast spend some good mony towards west up. in noida and other city
 
Okkkkkkkk I understand

Hor kuch ho na ho par saarre Tewatia Ajit singh ki taang keenchan pai lag re... aapne gotti ki gail itna bada julam........ iss baat se sidh hotta hai..ki jaat kadhhe ek Chhappar ke taalle kathhe na so sakte.......khaskhar Tewatia
to bilkul bhi na.... yeh sabte nyarre chaalle karre dhur tai hi.............:D

merra baabba nu kaha karre ek laalla nadipaar(Meerut, bulandsahar, Ghaziabaad) waaloien tai bach ke rahiye... khaaskhar in Tewatia tai.. intai chalna(Clever) na mille tajhe koi Jaatoien main.... :D..... Kyoun ji aap ke kehte ho???????
 
UP is a big state and division of this state into smaller two or may be three states would not be a bad idea. However, the demand of the division of the state has not been for the reasons of development. More often than not it has been to get a segment of state that brings a particular party or leader into majority so that he can become undisputed leader in the small state.

We have heard the drawbacks of the big state. We have also heard that western UP produces much more and gets very little for development. This is all well known. However we are yet to hear a concrete plan from any one propogating the smaller state, in terms of action plan, priorities, revenue stream to fund those programs and other details, in nutshell if I can say in military term we don't have a "Staff Check".
Unless, we have that, a case can't be projected forcefully. For doing so, one needs to study about the state a lot, get the facts together and then burn mid-night oil to get some thing meaningful coming out which can be sold to larger section of the public and off course to the law makers in New Delhi.
Can Chota Chaudhary do that? or has he done some work on it, I am not sure about it. At least I have not heard about it. If some one has, then kindly do share Ch. Ajit Singh's vision of Harit Pradesh with all of us.


Totally agreed. The western UP which is quite prosporous to the rest of the state has been caught under the fire of the extreme currupt govts mainly inspired by the eastern UP and Bihar(which are tottaly lawless).
 
Dear Friends,
I just spoke to one of our relatives, who has been into politics for a very long time (never contested the elections though, but he had run some very good winning campaigns, his disciple is a MP).
As per him, it is going to be a hung assembly, with Mulayam Singh and Mayawati playing the power game. The congress seems to be in a very poor situation, as they don't have any popular leader to project. BJP is having its own problem. As per him, even though it would be better for the State if either of the National Parties (BJP or Congress) forms a stable government, but the ground reality is some thing different. UP is a fragmented state and that is going to show up in elections.

As far as Ajit Singh is concerned, I guess it is Ms. Chaudhary who is holding every thing for his party in UP.

As per his assessment, it is going to be a hung assembly with after election horse trading and money making. It purely is a business. There are a few more players in field, like Ram Vilas Paswan's party. How much he will erode Mayavati's base, only time will tell us. Let us see as the election comes colser.

I totally agree with these views Tavathia Sahab. Keeping in mind all the factors, my personal bet is on Mulayam Singh Yadav.

RK^2
 
Re PRashant sun

It doesnt matter if Saheb singh becomes a CM or not, what matter to u just cause he is a jat u want himt o be CM.. wrong policy bro

He has not been at all active in Delhi politics :) so he dont deserve

Infrastructue is thr cause it is capital?? It is the govts marvelous job that it is buildin infra. see it for commenwealth, Congress is doing such a wonderfull work, appriciate, if can not dont curse it even :)

Thirdly, Sompal ek jat hi tha, and as per u like u supported Sahib singh for being a jat, u shld support him too. par uska deemag chadd gaya jeette hi aur usne chaprauli, Ajit singh ka gadd todne ki jagah kaha mein tumhara koi kaam nahi karunga u didnt vote for me... so Uska AHEM bada aa gaya beech mein.


Aur bhai.... Arakshan ka mudda Arjun singh ka hai, Congress ka nahi, that is why it has not been implemented as yet.

and ye mudda pahle Ch. CHARAN SINGH ke mitr ne hi propose kia tha so aapko kyu khilaft hai
 
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