The financial pandemic...

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Mr. Nahuwar and ohers

U have put vry interesting Q and Ans here and u r saying still can't understand where this 613 billion gone, its not even 613 billion the figures i m putting here shows it is almost 1 trillion dollars.

Abhimanyu, I didn't mean that how 613 billion has gone rather why..I guess most of us know now the basic problem of sub-prime mortgage and other things but its interesting to note that all the financial gurus in these topmost investment banks have let that happen over period of time..they must have noticed the increasing debt long time back, but no body took any steps to control it..613 billion debt can't occur in an year or two. Moreover all this debt is not just by lending money for sub-prime mortgage..its just one part of their whole system..I am sure a lot of these banks have invested outside US too and have lost there due to their irregular financial practices..Citibank is one good example which has suffered huge losses in India operations too. I can't believe this is happening in a country that claims to be world's strongest economy.
 
Anatomy of a global credit crisis
----------------------------

Thanks a lot Prashant for such a valuable description.

US Economy is totally credit based Economy and so is their life style.

For a layman, Lehman brothers just borrowed money from some financial institutes with interest and landed that to their clients at some higher interest rates. Now their clients are unable to payback the money and hence the Lehman Brothers. All their credit is now their debit ..... so bankrupt.
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& ofcourse thanks a lot Vijay Sir:) to make the things simple & better to understand.




This is just like a virtual world of PLANS, BANKING & STRATAGIES.

Would like to know what's next & how?



Actually this is all about RISK MANAGEMENT which plays a pivotal role in Finance Industry.
This is also a big warning for those who want to make money overnight just by investing money.
& for BANKS who anyhow just wanna lend money to earn rapid & huge profit
& for those who think their money are in safe hands.
 
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its just a meagre 25% :D fall in usa market in the ongoing lehman bros. bankruptcy issue. indian media has a tendency to blow things out of proportion. in 2000-2001 usa markets fell by 50% only to recover back... they still are showing a growth rate of 3%.

calm down folks its just the crises of confidence, we hav nuthin' to worry as we dont hav any liquidity crises in india, unlike the other world... all this hip-hop should eventually slow down... enjoy yr. weekend. :D:D
 
Brahm Sir

This is not a hype created by media, and i dont know from where u got the information that US economy falled 50% in 2000-2001 which i never heard, studied or listened. Anyway i am not commenting that how much effect it will have on India but effect definitely Hoga!
I just read in News that one Stock-broker in Hyderabad committed suicide with his family, and there are many more who have invested in stocks will have to bear the loss.
Another effect will be of job cuts, which already starte din India. Most of the companies doin business with US firms will have to cut Jobs to secure themselves, So still u say it will not effect INdia.
US economy always effect the whole world and India is not exceptional!
Anyway khair jo hoga woh toh hoga hee!

Abhimanyu Phougat
 
Abhimanyu, Moreover all this debt is not just by lending money for sub-prime mortgage..its just one part of their whole system..I am sure a lot of these banks have invested outside US too and have lost there due to their irregular financial practices..Citibank is one good example which has suffered huge losses in India operations too. I can't believe this is happening in a country that claims to be world's strongest economy.
I agree wht u are saying, definitely these banks have invested outside too, and even i m saying that indirect factor of Iraq and afghanistan is also here cos US have failed to control these countries completely!
No doubt Worlds Strongest economy is in trouble!

Abhimanyu Phougat
 
I just read in News that one Stock-broker in Hyderabad committed suicide with his family,

Few days back someone in Orrisa committed suicide due to the big bang experiment

This world is full of stupids and media is always there to exploit them for their latest breaking news.
 
its just a meagre 25% :D fall in usa market in the ongoing lehman bros. bankruptcy issue. indian media has a tendency to blow things out of proportion. in 2000-2001 usa markets fell by 50% only to recover back... they still are showing a growth rate of 3%.

calm down folks its just the crises of confidence, we hav nuthin' to worry as we dont hav any liquidity crises in india, unlike the other world... all this hip-hop should eventually slow down... enjoy yr. weekend. :D:D


Sir, sorry don't mind but ye to wo waali baat ho gayi ki "Arre cool down buddy bus 50000 crore ka hi to loss hua hai, last time to 100000 crore ka loss hua tha...cool down....:D:D:D"

News is very much significant & nodoubt it's really really worth discussing & worring about to such happenings so as to learn from mistakes.
Infact it's an excellent CASE for finance students to observe & research upon.
 
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dear abhi/rahul,

abhi: ever heard of 9/11 terror attack at twin towers nd pentagon ??? :confused::rolleyes::confused: thts the time when us markets plummeted down to 50%. :)
...
rahul for sure its a nice lesson for finance students nd economists to learn... but the very word ECONOMY is so dicey nd unpredictable tht even the champions of the business have failed miserably... until few months back i was hearing tht oil prices will touch $ 200.00 per barrell nd see now... its less than $ 100.00 ;) wat a reprieve in inflation figures now... expctd to fall bck to 7% by march 2009.
...
hope u both were not insured with TATA AIG, if yes, let me know, i'll sort (bail) it out for u... :D as of now enjoy yr. weekend :)
 
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dear abhi/rahul,

abhi: ever heard of 9/11 terror attack at twin towers nd pentagon ??? :confused::rolleyes::confused: thts the time when us markets plummeted down to 50%. :)
...
rahul for sure its a nice lesson for finance students nd economists to learn... but the very word ECONOMY is so dicey nd unpredictable tht even the champions of the business have failed miserably... until few months back i was hearing tht oil prices will touch $ 200.00 per barrell nd see now... its less than $ 100.00 ;) wat a reprieve in inflation figures now... expctd to fall bck to 7% by march 2009.
...
hope u both were not insured with TATA AIG, if yes, let me know, i'll sort (bail) it out for u... :D as of now enjoy yr. weekend :)

Well Brahm Sir , That was a one day thingy! And that was not systemic , this one is systemic and it will plague all sectors , not just the markets!

This one is already dubbed as the biggest after the great depression of 1929. It ain't only about wiping equity! It is much more!
:)
 
I have a very funny and informative presentation of subprime! It for sure is very cartoon-ish but is true! Actualy that was the thing that happened.

So put your emails if you want to havea look. I dunno how to attach it here! In anycase does contain some sensored things!


I will try and put my views and explanations over here !!! :)
 
613 billion (Rs 28 lakh crore) debt on Lehman books, this is the biggest bankruptcy ever.

bhai Sumit, Anil and others:
where this biggggggg money disappeared???:confused:
Lehman have this much of Debt.. so they are supposed to pay to the investors.. but what happened to this money... where they lost it???

Is it like: Lehman are Doomed and 'Few' others became billionaire overnight?? :confused:
OR
IS it like: Lehman put whole lot of money in some factory and factory caught fire and Lehman were not insured!! hence net loss to all.. small investors and of course Lehmans!!!:eek:

P.S. Excuse me for being absolute dumb... :)

Not an expert! Still learning ABC of Finance , but let me give it a try!

Now where the money disappeared.

I guess it's the equity wiping out.

Imagine Lehman shares around 97$ beginning of year and now they are at 3-5 $ i believe! so all the equity has been wiped out.

Next all of its assets have been marked to market and they ahve been going down in price all the way so that is also causing the losses.

No its only Lehman who was doomed. And that involves all those as well who were holding lehman , shares , bonds! :)

the only gainers would probably be short sellers.

Now short selling is fundoo.

LEt me try and explain:

Imagine yourself 6 months ago where Lehman shares lets say were trading at 60$.
At that time if you sold 1 million shares of lehman at 50 and agreed to bought them 6 months ahead , you would make ( supposing the current lehman price to be 10$) : 1 million * ( 50 -10) = 40 million.

Caveat: If Lehman prices would have gone up to lets say : 90.

You would have lost : 1 million * ( 90-50) = 40 million.

:)

but thats waht short selling is.

Other gainers include people who have been buying protection on Lehman. In Derivatives trading we have an instrument called credit default swap (CDS): In which you can buy/sell protection on a firm/country/bond/share or any underlying.
so people who were buyers of CDS would ahve benefitted as the rules are if the company defaults you amke money!
:)


===========

To add on and to give a glimpse into short selling and the current market behaviour :
FSA ( check on web for the full form ;) assignment :p) has declared all short selling on Financial Banks as illegal till 2009 because they feared that short selling would lead to a bank run on may be Morgan Stanley or Goldman Sachs !
Now why does short selling hurts ! I guess obvious because if you sell a lot of shares at the current price , there is a lot of supply and demand supply rationale would make the price go down , you again buy at less price and make the profit , net it out , do further short selling.

So if you have a lot of money and a very good intuition/hunch , you can make a lot of money.

FSA feared that if people start short selling GS , MS stocks , it could be deadly and may be resulting in Lehman's kind of result for MS and GS , so they banned it!
:)
 
Well Brahm Sir , That was a one day thingy! And that was not systemic , this one is systemic and it will plague all sectors , not just the markets!

This one is already dubbed as the biggest after the great depression of 1929. It ain't only about wiping equity! It is much more!
:)

dear anil, i'm not denying as to what you are saying. but in 2001, even before 9/11 there was a big recession in us economy... it wasn't a single day thingy as it took abt 2 months for the things to start falling in places. refer attachment, wch i sumwhat managed to get from "wall street journal"

(excuse me, if u find my knowledge a bit off-line cos economics is not my cup of tea :))


Roughly two weeks after 9/11, a Bloomberg survey found 22 out of 30 economists predicting recession. Many feared that the direct and indirect costs of security would reduce profits and productivity, consumer spending would slow sharply, deflationary pressures could worsen, and fearful businesses would lower investment, boost inventories and think more local and less global.

But someone forgot to turn out the lights. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the recession officially ended in November 2001, just 50 days after 9/11. Retail sales, excluding autos, were higher in October 2001 than they were in August. Real GDP expanded at an annualized rate of 1.6% in the fourth quarter of 2001, and since then has grown at an annual real rate of 3.2% -- roughly equal to the 50-year average.
 
US Economy is totally credit based Economy and so is their life style.

For a layman, Lehman brothers just borrowed money from some financial institutes with interest and landed that to their clients at some higher interest rates. Now their clients are unable to payback the money and hence the Lehman Brothers. All their credit is now their debit ..... so bankrupt.

I hope i am right ....... Economist plz let me know :)

Yes Vijay , you are very right , US economy is a consumption economy. Earn less , spend more kind of! Take , borrow finances /loans etc ... is their main way to finance.

Abhi has explained it well and Prashant has given nice article , but still let me try and explain.

Imagine me in US a couple of years back.

The housing was in a boom. Everybody was buying houses and somehow people were forced into thinking that house prices cannot go down. So people were buying , selling at higher price , taking profit , agian buying and selling at higher prices etc etc. There was a lot of buying from everyone because credit was available cheaply ( Almost all banks were too lineant on lending standards , no credibility , ability to repay etc were checked ). So everyone was buying houses. This created the housing price bubble.
Now how does the process work. A small bank will give loan to customers. Then it would bundle all such loans into a package and give it to the so called smart guys at investment banks!(eg Lehman). They will create complex products out of these. The rating agencise (S&P , Moodys , Fitch etc ) will rate these products. Now these smart guys at the investment banks made it so complex that even the rating agencies were sucked into rating these very highly ( Also add to the woes of a couple of bugs in the models of these rating agencies and i am not kidding : Moody themselves accepted of a programming bug in their CDO rating model programme).
Now investors buy them ( mainly institutional investors like buy side firms like my company and other hedge funds , money mangers m sovereign wealth funds of emerging countries , oil rich countries et c etc.)

Now when the bubble reached an extent where it was no longer sustaineable that it will continue , things started falling ( Add to that the US central bank and policy makers were seeing all the boom happening so because of high oil prices and food prices caused inflation , they had to hike their rates so credit was getting rich to hold on , and money was getting sucked back from the economy a bit , so everyone started feeling the pain ranging from consumers to the companies , so on one hand started a thing of default of people and on other side selling of the complex securities which were held , so these banks etc star ted feeeling the pain and people were brought back to reality.

And the big lesson I learnt in finance is that it is not about the actual price or value , it is about what the market feels it is. Once the house prices started falling, all the short sellers ( and yes they do exist in housing market as well ) started pocketing the profit and so there was big supply causing an increasing spiral of decreasing home prices , add to that the default rate jumped up and the investors panicking and more selling.

Our CIO calls this as delevering of financial institutions. All institutions were highly levered meaning their assets to debt ratio was very high , once they started to get that down , more forced selling leading to less prices and more collateral calls*** and thus more forced selling. All is a negative feedback loop.


Collateral calls : Now this is important concept , Other than the Exchange market there is personal market called OTC ( Over the Counter) , in this market there are mutual agreements between I-banks and other financial institutions and there are rules that if a certain event triggers they have to post a certain collateral to the counterparty.

Imagine people having these agreements with Lehman , once Lehman was going down , everyone triggered in these contracts and posting collateral calls , now in any case lehman was facing liquidity concerns , more collateral calls means more capital raising by forced selling of even good assets and meaning more losses , all this is negative self feeding.
Add to the woes the rating agencies showed all the things of wrong assignments and wrong risk determination meaning investors to improve their risk profile by selling more risky assets implying they even go down in price! :) the sole hopes of recovery were wiped out!


Fear gripped in and there was no trust among the counterparties. Situation is so worse that the LIBOR ( London Interbanking Lending rate : the rate at which banks lend money to each other )spiked up so high that people made comment that LIBOR is getting to the point where Banks DO NOT lend money to each other :p


Althought the pivot was the bursting of housing bubble but the self feeding loop and the wave of delevering ahs made it into a crisis of sorts!

In nutshells present day people are paying the price for excessive innovations for greed of the couple of years back i-bankers(the so called smart guys ;) ).

Phewww.. i tried my hand and tried to be easy enuf ! Let me know if u need details!
:)
 
dear anil, i'm not denying as to what you are saying. but in 2001, even before 9/11 there was a big recession in us economy... it wasn't a single day thingy as it took abt 2 months for the things to start falling in places. refer attachment, wch i sumwhat managed to get from "wall street journal"

(excuse me, if u find my knowledge a bit off-line cos economics is not my cup of tea :))

Roughly two weeks after 9/11, a Bloomberg survey found 22 out of 30 economists predicting recession. Many feared that the direct and indirect costs of security would reduce profits and productivity, consumer spending would slow sharply, deflationary pressures could worsen, and fearful businesses would lower investment, boost inventories and think more local and less global.

But someone forgot to turn out the lights. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the recession officially ended in November 2001, just 50 days after 9/11. Retail sales, excluding autos, were higher in October 2001 than they were in August. Real GDP expanded at an annualized rate of 1.6% in the fourth quarter of 2001, and since then has grown at an annual real rate of 3.2% -- roughly equal to the 50-year average.

Hi Brahm , i read the whole journal , yes u r right about recession ( recession is official when gdp growth is negative and/or a couple of other points). But 2001 recession was not as severe. I am also not an expert at historical cycles but it might have been a phase in that cycle!

But the current one is big and is already dubbed as the biggest after 1929 ! And its not that it is ending tomowwor , ina weeek , month or near ?
It will alst at least till end 2009.
starting from probably 3Q 2007 and neding 3Q 2009 , means a couple of years.

And as mentioned int he article , the low interest rates were instrumental is excess leverage and also for the housing boom , yes the seeds of this crisis we re surely sowed at that time! :)

The only point this time is that this time it is contagious , Europe has caught it , so is UK and its going to slow down even the emerging economies!

India will feel the pain , although I will still enjoy my weekend ;) as suggested by you ! he he he he!

:)
 
Thanks Anil, Vijay, Brahm sir and others for your efforts in simplifying Lehman enigma a bit... :)

phew, getting atomic resolution in electron microscope doesn't appear so painful now!! :eek::eek:
 
Thanks Anil, Vijay, Brahm sir and others for your efforts in simplifying Lehman enigma a bit... :)

phew, getting atomic resolution in electron microscope doesn't appear so painful now!! :eek::eek:


Exactly my dear Physicist friend :) ;)
 
Thanks Anil, Vijay, Brahm sir and others for your efforts in simplifying Lehman enigma a bit... :)

phew, getting atomic resolution in electron microscope doesn't appear so painful now!! :eek::eek:

physicist... hmmm :)

sry to be off-topic, but r u talkin' of achieving tht in SEM or TEM ?... hope u r doin' it on Transmission Electron Microscope (TEM) nd using 5 to 10 images with resolution extending beyond the Scherzer limit of 1.38A amstrongs. i can see a zeiss in yr. background lab... or is it jeol/hitachi ? :p;) i dont know abc of wat i'm talkin' but surely i can comment on xyz. ;):o
 
physicist... hmmm :)

sry to be off-topic, but r u talkin' of achieving tht in SEM or TEM ?... hope u r doin' it on Transmission Electron Microscope (TEM) nd using 5 to 10 images with resolution extending beyond the Scherzer limit of 1.38A amstrongs. i can see a zeiss in yr. background lab... or is it jeol/hitachi ? :p;) i dont know abc of wat i'm talkin' but surely i can comment on xyz. ;):o

Ofcourse in TEM!!! SEM is far far away in terms of 'resolution' and certain 'capabilities'.. and TEMs we have, ek baba aadam k zamane ka JEOL, totally obsolete now a days. (only to 'check' if sample is actually a 'TEM sample' :p)
mostly i have used Tecnai T20, as i am an authorized
/independent user of this machine.. T20 Filament is LaB6 thermoionic based and generally operated at 200 kV (max limit).

Tecnai T20 we are using is essentially a dedicated HRTEM (High Resolution TEM) imaging machine, though sometimes i do capture some SAED (selected area electron diffraction) patterns and EDAX also.

For quantitative analysis like EELS and other thing we use Tecnai F30 (field emission based, operates 300 kV and hence more 'Powerful').

For more info just check this: http://ini.iisc.ernet.in/facilities.htm

And Well Brahm Sir, background: Ac wires!!! :p
 
Yes Vijay , you are very right , US economy is a consumption economy. Earn less , spend more kind of! Take , borrow finances /loans etc ... is their main way to finance.
Phewww.. i tried my hand and tried to be easy enuf ! Let me know if u need details!
:)

Phewww....n i thought finance was boring.
Awesome explanation!!! all kudos...
I guess US will learn something out of this recession and will develop some national level risk management protocols to handle times like this...
 
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