samarkadian
Active member
---->Found this piece of article on a blog for the people interested in Western UP politics.
What does this mean in terms of UP’s regional politics? In the Vidhan Sabha elections, the biggest chunk of Mayawati’s vote came from western UP, the home of the vocal Jats but also of militant Jatavs (untouchables) and outspoken Muslims. With the Muslims already batting for her and voting along with Jatavs, the unity of the upper castes and Jats has no meaning. If anything, farmer leader Mahendra Singh Tikait’s anti-Dalit statements in a public rally, have consolidating the lower castes against the Jats. Anyone who consorts with the Jats has a snowflake’s chance in hell of getting the Dalit vote now.
True, no by-election was held in western UP this time. But Jats are anti-Congress by temperament and the BJP needed Tikait’s call for caste assertion at this point like a hole in the head. Because while Jat consolidation is a political blessing, its backlash represents the consolidation of anti-Jat forces, a development that can only bolster Mayawati’s chances.
Besides, so long as Ajit Singh was in alliance with the BJP, it was he who mopped up the Jat vote for it. Now he’s out and the BJP is neither getting the Jat vote in western UP nor the anti-Jat vote.
What this points to is obvious: in the Lok Sabha election, while the BSP and SP will fight for number one and two place, the Congress and BJP will vie for number three and four, a cheerless prospect from the point of view of government formation after the next Lok Sabha elections.
There is another factor that has begun to have a role in UP: personality factor. Today, Mayawati and Mulayam Singh Yadav have pledged to give their all to UP. But can you think of a single person in the Congress or BJP who has said: “I am dismayed at the way UP is being governed and I’m going to make UP my karmabhumi (centre). I don’t want a role in central politics, I’m renouncing that and am going to focus on making UP a better place to live in?”
Not one. Not Rahul Gandhi, not Murli Manohar Joshi, not LK Advani. So the UP vote naturally thinks, “Well, if we’re not good enough for you, then you’re not good enough for us”. And with 40 Lok Sabha seats out of 80 (or thereabouts) under her belt, it is Mayawati who will be among those to decide who President Pratibha Patil swears in as Prime Minister of India
What does this mean in terms of UP’s regional politics? In the Vidhan Sabha elections, the biggest chunk of Mayawati’s vote came from western UP, the home of the vocal Jats but also of militant Jatavs (untouchables) and outspoken Muslims. With the Muslims already batting for her and voting along with Jatavs, the unity of the upper castes and Jats has no meaning. If anything, farmer leader Mahendra Singh Tikait’s anti-Dalit statements in a public rally, have consolidating the lower castes against the Jats. Anyone who consorts with the Jats has a snowflake’s chance in hell of getting the Dalit vote now.
True, no by-election was held in western UP this time. But Jats are anti-Congress by temperament and the BJP needed Tikait’s call for caste assertion at this point like a hole in the head. Because while Jat consolidation is a political blessing, its backlash represents the consolidation of anti-Jat forces, a development that can only bolster Mayawati’s chances.
Besides, so long as Ajit Singh was in alliance with the BJP, it was he who mopped up the Jat vote for it. Now he’s out and the BJP is neither getting the Jat vote in western UP nor the anti-Jat vote.
What this points to is obvious: in the Lok Sabha election, while the BSP and SP will fight for number one and two place, the Congress and BJP will vie for number three and four, a cheerless prospect from the point of view of government formation after the next Lok Sabha elections.
There is another factor that has begun to have a role in UP: personality factor. Today, Mayawati and Mulayam Singh Yadav have pledged to give their all to UP. But can you think of a single person in the Congress or BJP who has said: “I am dismayed at the way UP is being governed and I’m going to make UP my karmabhumi (centre). I don’t want a role in central politics, I’m renouncing that and am going to focus on making UP a better place to live in?”
Not one. Not Rahul Gandhi, not Murli Manohar Joshi, not LK Advani. So the UP vote naturally thinks, “Well, if we’re not good enough for you, then you’re not good enough for us”. And with 40 Lok Sabha seats out of 80 (or thereabouts) under her belt, it is Mayawati who will be among those to decide who President Pratibha Patil swears in as Prime Minister of India