It is an interesting discussion, where we have different views about a super power’s intentions, capabilities and our own capabilities. Some views are pretty objective while some are still influenced with the political parties we are affiliated with.
Let us talk about as to what has changed since 1962. Firstly, we have Sikkim as part of our union now, and that is a BIG strategic advantage. I have written earlier on as to how Sikkim’s accession to India helps us strategically in the war against China.
The second thing is, we are occupying Siachin Glacier Heights. That gives us another advantage to monitor trans border movements through Karakoram and observation on road coming through Aksaichin to Tibbet, the likely battle field in the event of a War with China.
I have already talked about the technical advantage of our airfields nearly at sea level to the proximity of Chinese border as against limitations of Chinese air crafts taking of from high altitude air fields.
We manufacture most of our defense equipment indigenously, as well as we do have some good relations with the countries those can supply us with equipments in the emergency. For this today we do have enough foreign reserves to pay for.
We do have a much more efficient and well equipped Navy to dominate movements in the India ocean. Remember both India and China are heavily dependent on the middle eastern oil. No matter how wonderful air crafts and tanks we may have, but they all need a lot of oil, and hence our compulsion to have good relations with the OPEC countries. China is extremely keen on having a pipeline from Iran through Pakistan for this purpose, but technically how easy it would be can be anybody’s guess.
Local support within our own border states for China is likely to be minimum, since the residents of these states have tasted the democracy, and media gives enough exposure to the problem of living in a communist society. Further the events of Tibbet are less likely to encourage anyone to support a Chinese invasion/occupation. Contrary to this, we are likely to have a support from the local population in Tibbet.
But all is not green and gold for us. We do have problems too. We need to be extremely sensitive to the communist influence in Nepal, and must monitor activities in Bhutan.
Wars are costly both in terms of men and material. With both countries having nuclear weapons, it is likely to happen in the event when the entire world gives up the diplomatic means. Both India and China are the big markets for countries across the globe. Hence I don’t see a war between these two countries at all out level. Small border skirmishes will always continue. What we need to do is maintain a strong posture, and reply each intrusion with strength both locally by military means and internationally by diplomatic means.
Let us not blame US and rest of the world for all our problems. We are one of the oldest civilization, and are a resource rich country, yet, small contingents from the Islamic Countries looted us and then ruled us for centuries. This also resulted in a lot of locals converting to Islam both willingly and forcefully. Then came a business entity called East India Company and ruled us for two centuries. We boast too much about our achievements, bravery and what not, but the fact of the matter is that inspite of being the decendents of Ram, Krisha, and Ashok, we have been ruled by foreign powers for several centuries. I see only one reason, we have a whole lot of Jats, Brahmins, Banias, Gujars, Chamars, Punjabis, Madrasies and what not, but have a very few Indians. We blame every one for our miseries, but don't learn lessons from the history.
40% of the world's population and a significant (and expanding) middle class in both countries literally dictate the world economics..
akistan,Nepal,Bangladeshetc...where are we?..guarding Siachin and helplessly watching Chinese constructing road across boarder.