The financial pandemic...

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Friends,

I was wandering if the Inflation has something to do with market situation?


You might find this helpful :

Most central banks (CBs) have, at some point in their respective history, decided to target price stability that is to conduct their monetary policy, especially setting some reference interest rate. Price stability is then usually defined by some level of consumer price inflation, with varying underlying consumer basket definitions according to local consumption behavior.

It is generally accepted that price stability contributes to sustained economic growth, since periods of inflation and deflation hinder decision making by consumers and producers. With appropriate monetary conditions, the CBs set rates in ways that prevent excessive demand for goods and services that could result in production capacity bottlenecks resulting in rising prices, but also prevent reduced supply of money and credit to the economy, that could lead to a shortage of aggregate demand. With stable prices, CBs enable the economy to exploit its full production potential.
Not every price increase is necessarily inflationary and inflation itself cannot be measured accurately. A higher than zero percent inflation target enables a significant part of the economy to avoid deflation while also allowing relative price adjustments due do productivity differentials in services and manufacturing. Also, the scarcity of commodities calls for some level of positive inflation. Hence inflation as a target is usually some fixed number or range above zero, depending on the individual CB’s preferences.

However, short term and longer term inflation outlooks have different factors driving them and especially shorter term price fluctuations are difficult to be countered by CB policy. In fact, a hurried thoughtless reestablishment of price stability could have adverse effects on the business cycle and employment.
 
Am not expert so people can correct me here!

In india we generally have subsidised energy prices , the reason for this inflation at such high was driven by oil price shocks coming from outside and govt not able to subsidise such a shcoking increase. Just for numbers , oil rose to 145$ a barrel only 3 months ago! Now it is at 70$ or less.

Now govt can subsidise whole of it when it was at 145 so transmitted it to consumers thus further fuelling inflation. Inflation may also be caused by bad crop , environmental devastatation of crops etc. Or supply constraint.

Now what do we understand by growth , growth means increase in products and services , now , for generating more , there should be enough liquidity around , so it means there is cheap money available , growth means people's salary goes up , they can spend more and so it is an incentive to produce more so it is self feeding. Inflation does not die down with growth , because inflation captures the increase in prices , now when people are having cheap money or when there is excessive liquidity in the system , people are bound to consume more and they are willing to pay mor for the same thing!


Although these days inflation is rampant all over the world , infact everyone is predicting a secular trend of increased inflation! Why ? Because emerging markets like China , India are now competing with west on more consumption of oil , energy , resources , meat , food etc So there is bound to be demand shock meaning increase in prices.
 
Friends,

I was wandering if the Inflation has something to do with market situation?


Let me give you the real definition of inflation. The guys at Delhi School of Economics and other Keynesian Economists dont want you to know this deeply guarded secret. Now it is yours for free.

Inflation is unaccounted cash currency floated into the market by the central bank of a country; Reserve Bank of India in our case.

Every economy has something called Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It is the total worth of all goods and services produced by the residents of a country. To have a stable economy it is very important that the cash held in a country's banks to be equal to the GDP. in realistic terms it is a little bit more complicated. But to make it simple just remember that it is not good to have more cash in an economy than what is the total worth of the goods and services produced in the country during a given year.

That was 50% of the story. Here is the other 50%. While the rest of the country produces and consumes, the government doesn't produce anything and just consumes. To fund that consumption it taxes its residents. Sometimes the government consumes more than what it collects in taxes.

To fund that extra consumption, the government prints extra currency. This extra currency is not accounted for by the goods and services produced in the country. This extra currency is flooded into the market by the government to pay for its extra consumption.

So, now we have more cash floating around in the economy than there should be. With more cash floating around, people have more cash on their hand to spend on goods and services.

The producers of goods and services are not stupid. They realize people have a capacity to pay higher prices. So they raise the prices of their goods and services. This rise in prices is called inflation.

This is the reason governments that have tried to increase prosperity by printing currency have ended up causing record inflation. This is what happened in post World War 1 Germany and very recently during the collapse of the Soviet Union.

There are several other perspectives on this issue that lead to the same conclusion, i.e. government cannot print its way out of a financial crisis.

This is the reason the informed people are against the financial bailout of Wall Street banks. The government has promised a Trillion dollars to these banks that lost all their money on bad bets. The question no one asks is that where is the government going to get a Trillion dollars from when it is running a a Trillion dollar budget deficit. China is on the verge of saying no to any more loans to the USA. It realizes that the dollar has never been so hollow in the past. China does not want to increase its risk by investing the US treasury anymore. It is slowly converting its deposits to gold.

So, the fear is that the US government is going to print a Trillion dollars and flood it into the market. It will cause record inflation.

Oil prices are falling because OPEC countries are facing falling demand due to lack of dollars in the global economies. If the US government floods a Trillion dollars into the world's economies, there will be a temporary surge in buying capacities of investors, and thus oil prices will rise again.

The truth of the matter is that there is no one person, institution or government that has enough power to make the economy function according to its wishes. Economies are far more powerful than the governments. Thus governments have very less control to cause good things to happen to their economies. Dont buy all this bullshit about regulation. If the government thinks it can fix the problem it caused in the fist place by further regulation then it is bullshitting you. Just tell your government to leave the economy alone. Let it chart its own course.
 
Let me give you the real definition of inflation. The guys at Delhi School of Economics and other Keynesian Economists dont want you to know this deeply guarded secret. Now it is yours for free.

Inflation is unaccounted cash currency floated into the market by the central bank of a country; Reserve Bank of India in our case.

Every economy has something called Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It is the total worth of all goods and services produced by the residents of a country. To have a stable economy it is very important that the cash held in a country's banks to be equal to the GDP. in realistic terms it is a little bit more complicated. But to make it simple just remember that it is not good to have more cash in an economy than what is the total worth of the goods and services produced in the country during a given year.

That was 50% of the story. Here is the other 50%. While the rest of the country produces and consumes, the government doesn't produce anything and just consumes. To fund that consumption it taxes its residents. Sometimes the government consumes more than what it collects in taxes.

To fund that extra consumption, the government prints extra currency. This extra currency is not accounted for by the goods and services produced in the country. This extra currency is flooded into the market by the government to pay for its extra consumption.

So, now we have more cash floating around in the economy than there should be. With more cash floating around, people have more cash on their hand to spend on goods and services.

The producers of goods and services are not stupid. They realize people have a capacity to pay higher prices. So they raise the prices of their goods and services. This rise in prices is called inflation.

This is the reason governments that have tried to increase prosperity by printing currency have ended up causing record inflation. This is what happened in post World War 1 Germany and very recently during the collapse of the Soviet Union.

There are several other perspectives on this issue that lead to the same conclusion, i.e. government cannot print its way out of a financial crisis.

This is the reason the informed people are against the financial bailout of Wall Street banks. The government has promised a Trillion dollars to these banks that lost all their money on bad bets. The question no one asks is that where is the government going to get a Trillion dollars from when it is running a a Trillion dollar budget deficit. China is on the verge of saying no to any more loans to the USA. It realizes that the dollar has never been so hollow in the past. China does not want to increase its risk by investing the US treasury anymore. It is slowly converting its deposits to gold.

So, the fear is that the US government is going to print a Trillion dollars and flood it into the market. It will cause record inflation.

Oil prices are falling because OPEC countries are facing falling demand due to lack of dollars in the global economies. If the US government floods a Trillion dollars into the world's economies, there will be a temporary surge in buying capacities of investors, and thus oil prices will rise again.

The truth of the matter is that there is no one person, institution or government that has enough power to make the economy function according to its wishes. Economies are far more powerful than the governments. Thus governments have very less control to cause good things to happen to their economies. Dont buy all this bullshit about regulation. If the government thinks it can fix the problem it caused in the fist place by further regulation then it is bullshitting you. Just tell your government to leave the economy alone. Let it chart its own course.


Phewww ! You can give those i-bankers a run for their money!

Meanwhile i again know that this is not humour section but here are a few jokes worth mentioning , i just hope people dont mind!



  • What do you call 12 investment bankers at the bottom of the ocean? A good start

  • Masked man holding a bank cashier up with a gun. Says: 'I don't want any money - I just want you to start lending to each other...

  • What's the difference between Investment Bankers and London Pigeons?

  • The Pigeons are still capable of making deposits on new BMW's
  • What's the difference between an investment banker and a large pizza?
    A large pizza can feed a family of four

  • What have Icelandic banks and an Icelandic streaker got in common?
    They both have frozen assets
  • Money talks. Trouble is, mine only knows one word - goodbye.
  • What is a banker's favourite chocolate bar? A credit crunchie!
  • For Geography students Only: What's the capital of Iceland?
    Answer: About Three Pounds Fifty...
  • If you had purchased $1000.00 of Nortel stock one year ago, it would now be worth $49.00. With Enron, you would have $16.50 left of the original $1000. With WorldCom, you would have less than $5.00 left. If you had purchased $1000.00 of Delta Air Lines stock you would have $49.00 left. If you had purchased United Airlines, you would have nothing left. But, if you had purchased $1000.00 worth of beer one year ago, drank all the beer, and then turned in the cans for recycling, you would have $214.00. Based on the above, the best current investment advice is to drink heavily and recycle. This is called the 401-Keg Plan
 
Investment Ideas !

If you had purchased $1000.00 of Nortel stock one year ago, it would now be worth $49.00. With Enron, you would have $16.50 left of the original $1000. With WorldCom, you would have less than $5.00 left. If you had purchased $1000.00 of Delta Air Lines stock you would have $49.00 left. If you had purchased United Airlines, you would have nothing left. But, if you had purchased $1000.00 worth of beer one year ago, drank all the beer, and then turned in the cans for recycling, you would have $214.00. Based on the above, the best current investment advice is to drink heavily and recycle. This is called the 401-Keg Plan

* Investment Ideas ! *

if you purchased $ 1,00,000 of delta airlines stock 1 year ago, you would hav $ 4,900 today.

if you purchased $1,00,000 of AIG stock 1 year ago, you
would hav $ 3,300 today.

if you purchased $1,00,000 of Lehman Brothers stock 1 year
ago, you would hav $ 0.0 today.

but, if you purchased $1,00,000 worth of beer 1 year ago,
drank all the beer, returned the aluminum cans for recycling , you would hav $ 21,400 !!!

wat wud u call this plan ??? :D ... Think Smart !! ;):D:D
 
* Investment Ideas ! *

if you purchased $ 1,00,000 of delta airlines stock 1 year ago, you would hav $ 4,900 today.

if you purchased $1,00,000 of AIG stock 1 year ago, you would hav $ 3,300 today.

if you purchased $1,00,000 of Lehman Brothers stock 1 year
ago, you would hav $ 0.0 today.

but, if you purchased $1,00,000 worth of beer 1 year ago,
drank all the beer, returned the aluminum cans for recycling , you would hav $ 21,400 !!!

wat wud u call this plan ??? :D ... Think Smart !! ;):D:D

Leverage :p
 
i think every thing is relative .....

if somebody has sold the oil futures contract with $100,000 account and only one lot (with around $98000 as free margin and only $2000 ) at price of $140 waited till the oil reaches $100 then he would have gained $40000

and if he is big gambler then he can wait for 70

this is for the pppl who never trades but market gives opportunity once in a year and have patience

if somebody has that much that much money then he can buy the contract .. he can see his account diminishing to 90000 even 80000 but the fact remains is he can easily earn minimum 20000 dollars in 5 months time to repay back all the loan and his rent expenses

haan jo bahut hi bada gambler ho vo hamesha option premium bhar ke chale ..... nahi to bahut bada badshah bhi ban sakta hein aur kangaal bhii ho sakta hein









 
i think there is a saying whoever is a milliionaire and billionaire and does not want to be there then buy airlines stock ....exceptions are there but this is generalization



* Investment Ideas ! *

if you purchased $ 1,00,000 of delta airlines stock 1 year ago, you would hav $ 4,900 today.

if you purchased $1,00,000 of AIG stock 1 year ago, you would hav $ 3,300 today.

if you purchased $1,00,000 of Lehman Brothers stock 1 year
ago, you would hav $ 0.0 today.

but, if you purchased $1,00,000 worth of beer 1 year ago, drank all the beer, returned the aluminum cans for recycling , you would hav $ 21,400 !!!

wat wud u call this plan ??? :D ... Think Smart !! ;):D:D
 
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Are u not so good in copy -paste ? Let me train u when u come india this time;):p. BTW , these are my personal views... don't u think i m good in seeing the future?:cool:


The views represented a very extreme view , that is why i asked.

Guess , you are not good at answering seriously! Am no teacher ! :)
 
Thanks Bhai ...

Let me give you the real definition of inflation. The guys at Delhi School of Economics and other Keynesian Economists dont want you to know this deeply guarded secret. Now it is yours for free.

Phool bhai bahut bahut dhanyavad, itne aachey se samjhane ke liye; you have got your concepts clear and sabse badi baat ki you write simple which is required the most for people like me to understand.

Still have some queries, will bother you later.:)

Thanks again bhai.
 
Phool bro or anyone who can throw light on this, how is the american dollar getting stronger against indian rupee or other countries currencies & for how much time(rough guess) they will be able to sustain this dollar price & what will happen to american economy when this dollar price will fall.
 
indian rupee dont know .. i am in favor of the thing that its a one way game .. happening in US impacting the indian rupee but happening in indian rupee not impacting anybody ... i still doubt any body depends much heavily on indian rupee depreciation so how much it depreciates .. finger crossed ...


i am not following chinese currency and japan yen .. if they have depreciated against dollar then i think they have reached almost to their extremes and they cant depreciate much as ppl started exporting less to US in which case US DOLLAR shd depreciate so that exporters from china and japan get more dollar ......

i feel these two currencies have reason for appreciation .. indian rupee doesnt have reason i feel .. i can be wrong .....

third reason i feel indian rupee is also not tradable currency .. so dont know ....

Phool bro or anyone who can throw light on this, how is the american dollar getting stronger against indian rupee or other countries currencies & for how much time(rough guess) they will be able to sustain this dollar price & what will happen to american economy when this dollar price will fall.
 
The dollar is sinking to new lows against the currencies of the major U.S. trading partners like Euro, the pan-European currency has hit $1.38 on Monday near its all-time high and The British pound hit $2.04, the highest since 1981.
However against INR its appreciating day by day. And recently Rupee has hit all time low of Rs 49.30 per dollar Irrespective of US Meltdown and comparative good & stable GDP growth rate at 7-8 % of indian economy.
The reason of weakening RS. against $ is the liquidity crunch of dollar since dollar is a major & base currency and fully convertible across the globe while Rs is partially convertible. The demand of dollar remain high
Though currency convertibility plays an important role in deciding the value of currency and its acceptability across the globe.
Convertibility can be defined as the right to convert a currency freely into another currency when a currency is inconvertible; it poses a risk and barrier to trade with foreigners who have no need for the domestic currency and will be less willing to accept a currency as payment if they will be unable to convert it to their own currency.
Inconvertibility is a series of customs regulations restricting the import and export of rupees. Legally, foreign nationals are forbidden from importing or exporting rupees, while Indian nationals can import and export only up to 5000 rupees at a time, and the possession of 500 and 1000 rupee notes in Nepal is prohibited.
For a developing country like India who may have low hard currency reserve at some point of time often restrict currency convertibility because the government would not be in a position to convert Rs in dollar.on very large scale through import and export route. On the current account, there are no currency conversion restrictions hindering buying or selling foreign exchange (though trade barriers do exist)
On the capital account, foreign institutional investors have convertibility to bring money in and out of the country and buy securities (subject to certain quantitative restrictions). However, owing to an enormous expansion of the current account and the capital account, India is increasingly moving towards full convertibility.

Coming back to the point to why INR is going low against dollar despite Indian economy is doing well in comparison with US economy…
Since indian economy is more exposed to US economy, there were so much dollar inflow in indian economy through FII and FDI route...export was also on high couple of months ago irrespective of RS went on its all time high at 38 RS/$. So it was the time when there was flood of dollar in Indian system
Bt once sub prime crises surfaced...everyone started pulling their money back from india to US....and it led to scarcity of $ in india while demand was on high and supply was less...eventually resulting in weakening Rs against dollar.
It will continue till US recession is over...and FII & FDI start putting their money back in indian system.
To answer ur third question about effect of fall of dollar on US economy is something which we have seen recently where us dollar went down upto 38 Rs per dollar where US importer felt the heat of widening their cost of import as our exporter cried when dollar went down and shrinked their export revenue.




Phool bro or anyone who can throw light on this, how is the american dollar getting stronger against indian rupee or other countries currencies & for how much time(rough guess) they will be able to sustain this dollar price & what will happen to american economy when this dollar price will fall.
 
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11 Segments

11 SEGMENTS WORST AFFECTED BY THE SLOWDOWN

Who will be the most impacted by the current downturn? My take.
1. BPO/outsourcing services: The Indian BPO industry is heavily leveraged on the US Banking Sector. Some of them even focus exclusively on investment banks. With the banks down and some of them even out, the BPO segment is right on top of the list of industry segments affected. Diversified BPOs and those with no exposure to banks, if there are any, may not feel the pinch as horribly. With credit card defaults expected to balloon, the worse is not yet over for this industry.

2. Software Export: Just behind BPO in their exposure to US banks in particular, and the US economy in general, is the Indian software export industry. While the top five may get way with some reshuffling and reorientation, it is those lower down the value/ brand value chain that will feel the real pinch.

3. Private Banks: I really hope that no Indian Bank shares the fate of the already fallen. But in terms of sheer market valuation, private banks have tken a drumming, while public sector (PSU) banks have gotten off comparatively easily. If the current situation continues, one wonders where their market capitalization will plunge to. A complete drying up of the loan market, combined with very high inter-bank and call money rates, if they persist, will impact some balance sheets significantly in the coming quarter. Also expect some investments/ deposits to move from private sector banks to nationalized/PSU banks.

4. Financial Intermediaries: Investment banking is an ugly word; stock markets are on a deep dive; private equity and PIPE (private investment in public equity) deals talks are going nowhere. Where will financial consulatnts, boutique invesment banks, stock brokers and various deal makers run to? They just have nowhere to go, at least for the time being.

5. Real Estate: The real estate slow down had started long before the financial markets collapsed (is is another matter that prices did not come down if you were in the market to buy). With interest rates for the sector remaining at astronomical levels, things look really bad. Even for the projects that are complete and ready to move in, takers may be few as those who have to make their final payments may have all their money burnt in the stock markets!

6. Organized Retail: Organized retail was, as it is, struggling to find its feet. The lack of money in the buyer's pocket means that more and more deals will have to be put out to get foot falls into the stores. The only silver lining may be that the price of real estate, one of the highest input costs for the sector may come down, albeit at the cost of the real sector.

7. Advertising: This one is a no-brainer. When things go bad, one of the first things that get cut is the advertisement budget.

8. Media: Advertising is what sustains media. With advertising budgets slashed, media can expect significant cuts in income.

9. Computer Hardware and Solutions: Next in the line for cuts in spending, after advertising is IT spends. Hardware and Software upgrades will be deferred as will the new implementations. Service contracts will be renegotiated downwards.

10. Airlines and tourism: A rather strange combination- the first one already in the doldrums and the second in the midst of a boom. The impact on both will be complementary. When personal expenses get deferred, first in the list is holidays and eating out. Must-do travel gets downgraded from air to train or road. When corporates tighten their belt, again, air travel and outstation accomodation get trimmed. So, not the best of times for both industries.

11. Low End Luxury Goods: This will come as a result of the great Indian middle class tightening belts. So, those who were looking at streching and buying their first entry-level luxury car will fall back to a midsized choice. The low hanging fruit or entry level luxury businesses will be the most affected.


11 INDUSTRY SEGMENTS THAT WILL DO WELL EVEN IN THE CURRENT FINANCIAL DOWNTURN

Are there any industry segments that can benefit from or even withstand that impact of the slowdown? Of course, there are. Every coin as another side. Here is my list. This one also has 11 segments, because there is more than just a silver lining for every dark cloud.

1. Education: Education is seen in India as a long-term investment by parents on behalf of future generations and there is huge gap, with demand far outstripping supply. Expect this segment sail through, largely unscathed. If anything, I would expect more and more western educational institutions to turn their focus to India and China, given the global scenario.

2. Health-Care: Similar to education, there is not enough supply to meet demand at all levels of society. Further, as markets turn bad, expect some of those affected to need psychological help!

3. Basic Food Material: Including milk and primary milk derivatives. Another no-brainer. I have added primary milk derivatives, particularly yogurt and ghee because many households in the metro cities no longer make their own yogurt and ghee.

4. Railways: Wit plane ticket prices hovering just above the reach of those traveling for private needs and with no indication of any downward movement, expect trains to run packed and queues at railway booking counters to get longer and longer.

5. Government/ PSU Institutions: With confidence in the private sector badly shaken, more and more people are likely to turn towards government institutions, particularly banks, in the quest of stability.

6. Telecom: Particularly mobile telecom. With cheap cellphones and cheaper call rates, the sector has become so entwined in our everyday life that telecom has almost become a primary need. On the corporate front, Internet bandwidth price going down has long since been part of the deal.

7. High-end luxury products: For someone worth billions, even if their paper wealth has been eroded by a few millions, they are not going to buy a mid-sized car! Nor are they going to be pressured to replace Armani and Gucci with Blackberry.

8. Open source software and Software-as-a-Service (Saas): With IT expenditure faces the axe, even more organizations will look at open source software in order to get business systems going at reduced costs. SaaS will also gain favor, as it not only converts a capital expenditure to a revenue expenditure, but also, it converts a one time large payment into equated monthly or quarterly payouts.

9. M&A consultants: With businesses hurting, they are going to be more open to being bought out or to look more favorably at mergers. This will keep M&A consultants busy.

10. Businesses around faith and God: In troubled times, people tend to find solace in God and in religion. Expect businesses like production of religious texts and religious materials to do well.

11. Online Advertising: With advertising budgets tightening, expect even more of whatever is left to move online, where the cost per contact is much smaller and response monitoring is much better.


NOTE: The article written is purely based on author's views and understanding. Errors are expected.
 
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Very funny but true!

To: Henry Paulson
From: Michael Lewis
Re: My TARP Funding
Dear Secretary Paulson:
First, allow me to explain that unfortunate incident the other morning in the Treasury men’s room. I failed to observe best practices.
Faced with a dozen empty urinals one should always put some space between oneself and a lone urinator. I took my place right beside you only because I hold you and everything you do in such high regard. If my whispered praise and steady gaze made you as uncomfortable as you appeared to be, I take full responsibility.
Also, please pass along my apologies to your colleague Mr. Kashkari for our recent encounter inside the Palm restaurant’s toilet stalls. My wide stance was inappropriate. I see now that my hand signal may not have been the best way to express my admiration for him -- a feeling I harbor for all those handing out bailout money. It was also wrong of me, as Neel flushed and fled, to refer to him as “Paulson’s Mini Me.” I spoke in frustration.
Now, on to the business at hand. In our brief exchange you asked a very good question: Who do I think I am, sneaking into the Treasury and asking you for $5 billion?
Other People’s Money
The short answer: an American businessman. Obviously, I’m not unique. Looking around I see many of my former fellow champions of laissez-faire -- everyone from boat dealers to bond insurers -- traveling to Washington to ask for their government’s assistance. Most of these people aren’t worthy of other people’s money, much less your precious time.
A former chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. does not mingle with boat dealers; he mingles with investment bankers; and the first rule, before handing out taxpayer money, is to have mingled with the people you want to hand it to.(That way they know whom they owe). I admire your ability to recognize your “circle of competence” and live within it.
Still, I do feel that in me, and my little literary business, there is opportunity for you, and your $700 billion. Allow me to explain why.
Be Fair
1) By giving the money to me, instead of someone less deserving, you will make the world a fairer place.
As much as I admire all of your decisions I can’t help but notice that the main qualification of the bankers to whom you have been giving money, so that they might make smart loans, is that they have gone almost bankrupt by making stupid loans.
As your mind is subtle, I can only assume that you secretly believe that the American economy right now needs not smart loans, but more stupid ones -- and thus that you have targeted the bankers who have proven they can make them.
I, unfortunately, have not flirted with bankruptcy, or made any stupid loans. But here’s my point: I haven’t been given the chance! Allow me to prove my financial ineptitude to you. I swear to you that when I return for my second round of assistance I will have proven myself fully qualified to receive it.
2) Unlike most of those vying for your affection, my business will do nothing to stifle growth or innovation.
Output Figures
By giving money to bankers who have made many stupid loans you have made life harder for bankers who have never made stupid loans. By aiding the dumb banks you prevent the smart ones from replacing them. It may be that just now smart bankers are the last thing we need -- but one day they may come in handy, and so we should do what we can to keep them from getting discouraged.
Here’s where I come in: I’m not a banker of any kind, but a mere writer. My little literary enterprise can absorb many billions of taxpayer dollars without consequence to the banking industry, or even to U.S. gross domestic literary output. If anything, other writers would have an opportunity to write more, as I, busy managing my new pile of cash, will naturally have no time to write.
3) Any funds you make available to me I pledge to put into circulation.
You have been disturbed, rightly, that the first $200 billion you handed out to the banks has seemingly vanished. The bankers who promised you they’d re-lend it have deceived you; I will not.
Eliminating Middlemen
If nothing else, giving the TARP money to me removes the unreliable middleman from the equation. Whatever of the first $5 billion I cannot spend myself, I will give to my wife and children, and maybe also to a dissolute uncle. You’ll be happy to know that we Lewises consume avidly but seldom shrewdly. When it comes to finding a bad deal -- good for the seller, good for America -- there’s really no one on the planet better than my wife.
4) I can help you in ways that even Goldman Sachs cannot.
You may think that you don’t need any more publicity than you have already received, but let me remind you that there’s more than one kind of publicity. There’s the article about you in the New York Times by some ungrateful journalist with no financial connection to you, over which you have no control. Then there’s the article by me about anything you want it to be about, anywhere you want it to appear.
You will be amazed by how little trouble it will be for you to come out looking “good” in one of my pieces. For a man of your stature, for instance, it can be hard finding the time to think up your own “quotes.” Not a problem! I can think up some for you. Any article I write would also be accompanied by photos of yourself looking many years younger than you currently do. You could have hair again, for instance, and an expression of total certainty.
So finally let me say my request to you comes not out of greed but patriotism. I ask not what my country can do for me, but for what my country can lend to me.
 
How Ch. Badlu Singh Nambardaar would have saved Lehman Bros Merchant Bank

I happened to run in to Ch. Badlu Singh Nabardaar on Dalal Street. He was eating Raabri and having his lota full of seeth. 'Raam Raam nambardaar... Ke gyaan?'

'Raam Raam'

He was looking glum but gestured me to join him. Ch. Badlu Singh is a well-respected Dalal Street dada with an answer to every shareholder's query. :D:D:D 'What went wrong with Lehman Brothers?' I asked.

'Lots of things. If the founder brothers, Henry, Emanuel and Mayer were alive this wouldn't have happened. Lehman Brothers were more than a 150-year-old company. But yet, it had no Lehman in the company. Such a situation can never happen in India .'

'Are you trying to tell me an Indian would have handled this differently?'


'Bilkul. If it was an Indian firm, Lehman Brothers would have fought as soon as their father died and divided in to three companies. They would have diversified into clothing, polystyrene, petrochemicals, vegetables, movie making, telecom, drilling oil, mobile phones, retailing, books, spectacles, gyms, wellness. In short, anything and everything under the sun. They would have made money for themselves and their shareholders.'

'But when there is massive failure there would be no option but to file for bankruptcy?'

'Fail-wail chance hi nahin! Even if they encounter tough times, they would have friends like Mulayam Singh and Amar Singh to bail them out. They could finish off competition by befriending the finance minister and getting duties levied on the imports of competition. They would fund and befriend ruling parties. Unfortunately for Lehman Brothers in 2008, without a Lehman on the board or some Indian business brothers at the top, they couldn't open the survival kit to stay afloat.'

As we were gulping the full lota of seeth, I asked: 'Did anybody anticipate this global meltdown?'

Anticipate? Mazak chhodo! I will tell you something. 45 Americans have been awarded the Nobel prize in economics since 1970 and from 2000 alone there are 15 Nobel laureates in econometrics sitting on company boards, US Treasury benches and in places like Harvard, Stanford etc. Kisiko kuch patha nahin tha! How come none of these had any inkling to the disaster awaiting the banking circles all over the world? Even the finance ministers of G-7 talked of strong 'fundamentals' of world economy around this time last year! Two months back the only topic they were discussing was the rise in oil prices.'

'What will happen if it goes all on like this?', I asked.


'Some American economist will study this, write a new theory and get a Nobel Prize next year, dekhna. Sadly, these 'geniuses' forget things like control, double check, reconciling income with expenditure & systems-in-place etc. They use vague words like "Subprimes" to hide/justify their unsustainable and unrepayable loans because they pocket their commission and move to the next job! Furthermore, they "sell" such bad debts they create and make more money for themselves. Finally, they pay themselves big bonuses before bankrupting the company!!

'What will happen to the Indian market?'


'It's already having the Lehman Brothers' effect. Our finance minister seems to like the figure 60,000. While presenting the budget earlier in the year he pledged Rs 60,000 crore to write off loans given to farmers. Now he is pumping Rs 60,000 crore to help out the banks! He was trained in nonsense economics at Harvard!'

'What is the lesson to be learnt from the Lehman Brothers' episode?' I asked as we were leaving.

Ch. Badlu Singh: 'You know, we have an old elementary rule for keeping hisab-kithab. Divide a page into 'Left' and 'Right' with a line in the middle to denote Debit on the left hand side of the poage and Credit on the right hand side. case of Lehman Brothers and other US & European banks, nothing was right in the 'Left' and nothing was left in the 'Right'... concluded Badlu Singh.
 
Time to invest in stock market(Spare money only)

Money which you do not need for some time( may be a year). Is it a good time to invest in few BlueChips ?
Not to say that BlueChip are safe. AIG and Enron both were blueChip.
What do you say ?
 
Money which you do not need for some time( may be a year). Is it a good time to invest in few BlueChips ?
Not to say that BlueChip are safe. AIG and Enron both were blueChip.
What do you say ?


In my opinion pls wait for some more days surely it will go down and pls invest for long term and try to invest in Blue chips with good track record.
 
Its good time to invest in mediocre stocks too ! Many such stocks are running at all time low, and this is a good time for purchase, but yes it must be done if the funds are available for long term in case the market takes some more time to improve.

Moreover people often purchase such stocks and sell them on a regular basis as and when the prices improve and dont wait for long. Start with a minimal amount, make small profits, dont wait for the stock price to grow for long ! And once you recover your original investment through such profits made, you can increase the size of your portfolio and diversify your investments, BUT dont be much bearish in your approach.

Often people are so exicted by the profits made that they start taking more and more risk lured by the probablity of making heavy profits and end up losing a big stake. Investing in market can be made at any point of time, but its better to keep the greed factor aside !
 
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